The paralyzing effects of economic uncertainty, including inflation and tariffs, are leading to continued at-home meal preparation, says Anne Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics LLC.
According to the Circana shopper survey, 80% of all meal occasions were prepared at home in March. This share varied from 72.5% among Gen Z to 86.6% among older Boomers.
“Retail is not isolated from behavioral changes in response to economic pressure. Grocery money-saving measures are widespread,” Roerink says.
Four population groups have shown a greater propensity for seeking savings, Circana reports. These include U.S. Hispanic consumers, households with incomes of less than $50,000 annually, rural households and consumers aged 55 and up. Importantly, households in the upper income brackets, who have been critical in growing retail spending for the past few years, are showing a slowdown in retail spending, Roerink notes in Meat Merchandising Matters.
“The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly, mostly due to a substantial drop in gasoline prices,” Roerink says. “Food prices told a different story. Food-at-home prices increased 2.4% year-over-year, while food-away-from-home prices rose 3.8%. The report landed just after a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs was announced. However, tariff news changes rapidly and has prompted consumer concern over prices and availability of goods.”
Marketing Matters
With all of these concerns weighing heavy on consumers now, there’s no question that it’s more important than ever to market products and build affinities in this environment.
“The meat case is a competitive space. If you want to be successful, you can never quit marketing,” says Brett Stuart, economist and founder of Global AgriTrends.
He challenges people to go into any grocery store and look at the meat case.
“It is unbelievable,” Stuart says. “The diversity compared to 15 to 20 years ago is shocking. There is an answer for every question when it comes to meat.”
Pork Competes
Pork has not seen the hyperinflation like beef has seen to date, Stuart points out.
“I don’t know if that’s good news or bad news,” he says.
For example, when a consumer goes to the grocery store, they see a beef rib eye at $18 a pound and a pork loin at $3 a pound, he says.
“You don’t see that on the menu when you’re buying tacos at a restaurant, but when consumers go into retail stores and they look and see those prices, pork is in a great spot,” Stuart says.
Despite the buzz around a recession, Stuart doesn’t think we will see that happen. However, if that were to happen, he argues pork is a very resilient product in that environment with inflation and consumer pressure.
Regardless, he says you can never quit marketing and selling your product.
“I appreciate National Pork Board and their efforts in this new campaign, ‘Taste What Pork Can Do.’ It’s a competitive space,” Stuart says. “I don’t care what business you’re in, you better have a marketing plan, and you better have a marketing budget.”
Heading into summer grilling season, optimism surrounds pork demand.
“I think it’s a good time for pork in the consumer space,” Stuart says. “Maybe I’m an eternal optimist, but I see a decent year for us in the pork industry. I don’t see any train wreck ahead. I think we’re in a good spot with supply and demand.”
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