The global meat industry continues to change and 2024 was no different than years past. A new competitor is upping the game for the red meat market.
“Brazil is the rising star,” said Erin Borror, U.S. Meat Export Federation vice president, economic analysis, at the Midwest Pork Conference. “They still have room for growth. As they overcome market access barriers that have been limiting their exports and production growth potential, we will see their exports grow.”
Mexico is just one key example. Mexico is “near and dear to our heart” in the U.S. because it’s part of our integrated North American market, she explained. Brazil was granted access to Mexico in 2022. A court case in Mexico temporarily stalled them so they were in and out of the market in 2023 but have ramped up exports on the pork side in 2024.
Most of Brazil’s exports to Mexico are a combination of frozen cuts, whereas most of U.S. exports to Mexico are combos of chilled bone-in hams. Nearly 90% of U.S. pork sent to Mexico is chilled, not frozen. Borror said this is an advantage over Brazil. Although the U.S. has long benefited from duty-free access to Mexico, through NAFTA and then USMCA, Brazil is benefiting from Mexico’s temporary waiver of all tariffs on meat imports, since May 2022, in an effort to reduce inflation. Otherwise, Brazilian pork would be subject to Mexico’s 20% most favored nation tariff.
“There will be limits to how much share of ours they take. We’re still 82% of Mexico’s imports. But it is an important development,” she warned. “Brazil already has a foothold on the poultry market in Mexico. These processors in Mexico are familiar with them already. It’s certainly worth watching.”
For Brazil’s growth in general, Borror said their foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free status without vaccination, is the key next piece to Brazil’s outlook. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said in a statement in May that it will ask for World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) to recognize that status as it seeks to open more markets for its meat exports. They asked for WOAH recognition in August 2025, but the request could be approved in May 2025.
“If WOAH grants that status countrywide, in my mind it would effectively enable their pork production to grow outside of those southern three states. Those three states, especially Santa Catarina, account for 73.5% of Brazil’s pork production. That’s a pretty small geographical area. Most of the grain is produced north of there. If they have that expanded status, access won’t come immediately, but it will come eventually as countries recognize it,” Borror said.
She said it will be important to watch how much their access expands and take note of the production growth that will follow.
“Even with the current situation, they’ve got additional plants eligible for places like the Philippines. In some months they have exported more to the Philippines than to China. They’ve been increasing their exports into Japan. They are now 6% of Japan’s imports from nothing a couple of years ago,” Borror said. “Markets that are really seeking value, especially with the inflation situation, will be drawn to them.”
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