What can the pork industry expect from the markets in 2026? Some experts agree the stage is set for more stability, but at the same time there’s less margin for error.
“Trade risk was a significant factor towards the end of 2024, especially with all the talk of higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada. That risk has subsided, in our view,” says Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting. “The U.S. administration has also made significant progress is defining terms of trade with other countries. China is a wild card, but that will always be the case.”
The continued spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe highlights that the U.S. remains a stable supplier. With another year of mild feed costs and steady supplies, Brian Earnest, lead economist, animal protein at CoBank, says it is important that producers look at their products and how those products can best serve U.S. and international consumers.
Kalo believes the big corn crop and large carryout is setting the stage for a more profitable 2026, something that was less certain at the end of 2024.
Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender with Farm Credit, agrees the U.S. is in a stronger financial and herd health position as compared to early 2025, when balance sheets were still recovering from one of the most severe downturns in history.
However, Lee Schulz, chief economist at Ever.Ag, cautions producers to remain disciplined in production and marketing.
“There is less margin for error,” Schulz says. “Profitability levels in 2026 are forecast to be about half of what they were in 2025. While profits may be available, the difference between profit and loss is much closer. High profit margin situations can better withstand market shocks, volatility, production hiccups, and hesitation in managing risk because there is a larger cushion.”
Schulz, Ford, Kalo and Earnest share insights on what you can expect in the 2026 pork outlook.
What are the biggest factors impacting the 2026 pork outlook?
Earnest: The U.S. has leaned out its sow program overall, and more than 25% of U.S. pork disappearance is reliant exports program. For these reasons and more, trade and animal disease are top of mind. Disruptions could significantly influence the U.S. pork industry in 2026. Of utmost concern, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), have affected hog availability, while ASF continues to threaten pork supply globally and has shifted export market dynamics.
Ford: The primary drivers remain disease risk and production levels. Current forecasts suggest average profits of $20 to $25 per head, but herd health in late 2025 and early 2026 will heavily influence supply. On the demand side, trade uncertainty and tariffs remain critical, with exports accounting for nearly 28% of production. Global trade disruptions have shown how quickly markets can turn negative. Feed and corn costs will also play a major role. While the 2025 corn crop was disappointing in many regions, the full impact on yields is still unclear. Additionally, elevated mycotoxin levels in corn are creating feeding challenges.
Kalo: From a supply perspective, feed costs and disease are the most significant. Farmers just harvested the biggest corn crop on record. Soybean crush is also up almost 12% from just two years ago, so meal supplies should be plentiful. This should provide producers with a much-needed cushion and the ability to lock in profits for a good portion of 2026. Producers will be able to operate from a position of strength, something you cannot say every year. Disease is something producers struggle with every year, and we have no reason to believe 2026 will be any different. Disease pressure this winter will likely be a significant factor for late spring and summer market.
From a demand perspective, producers should continue to benefit from the newfound appetite for protein. The goal should be how to best capitalize on this, especially given the increasing competitiveness of pork relative to beef. Working with foodservice operators and making inroads in that segment remains a key driver, in our view.
Schulz: Demand, demand, and did I already say demand? Many forecasts call for 2026 pork production to be relatively flat with 2025 levels. Likewise, many models have cost of production about the same across years. If this proves to be the case, and these are big ifs, then any change in the market equilibrium price, and profit level, would be attributed to a shift in the demand curve. It’s not quite that simple, though. Demand is multi-faceted. There is domestic retail and foodservice demand and export demand and each have their own unique demand curve. Furthermore, demand is a combination of quantity and inflation-adjusted price. Nonetheless, demand strength should have a heightened role on observed prices and profits in 2026.
What is your 2026 outlook for the pork industry?
Earnest: Feed costs and breeding herd supplies should both be stable and are supportive of an optimistic outlook for producer margins in 2026. Supplies do not appear to be shifting in a dramatic way, one way or another, discouraging volatility. But maybe bigger than that, pork is amidst a re-positioning with the American consumer, with a fresh marketing campaign focused on engaging the consumer through premiumization, flavor versatility and affordability.
Ford: Expect modest U.S. production growth of 1.75% to 2.25% in pounds produced. Significant herd expansion is unlikely as producers remain cautious about oversupply and face high construction costs while focusing on rebuilding balance sheets.
Kalo: We believe the outlook is positive. Supply growth is expected to be limited given the lack of expansion in the breeding stock and productivity returning to its long-run trend. We are also encouraged that some of the potential headwinds from escalating trade conflict with trade partners have eased, making for a more predictable demand path for exports. USMCA negotiations are something to closely watch although it appears that the administration is likely to work on developing a new framework on trade that will continue to support robust exports to Mexico. Finally, we are encouraged by the level of demand and believe that pork demand will continue to improve in 2026.
Schulz: An industry outlook may best be represented as a profit projection because it aggregates market fundamentals to forecast revenue, expenses and profit. Profit expectations drive risk management and investment decisions. Returns to farrow-to-finish production are expected to average a profit of $21 per head in 2025 according to the Iowa State University Estimated Livestock Returns Model. An average annual profit of $10 per head is forecast for 2026. Keep in mind that outside forces, which there are plenty, create uncertainty in profit projections. When uncertainty is elevated, larger expected returns are usually needed to trigger major investments including herd expansions. This may be why we won’t see much change in breeding herd numbers in the next year.
Check out Farm Journal’s PORK 2026 Outlook Series:
Pork Producers Can Beat the Unknowns in 2026 with These Risk Management Tips
Patience Paid in 2025: What the Pork Industry Learned This Year
