Patience paid in the hog market in 2025, says Lee Schulz, chief economist at Ever.Ag. But he’s quick to point out that patience should not be confused with complacency.
“In economics, patience is measured as the rate of time preference,” he explains. “This concept reflects the trade-off a person makes between having something now versus having something later. A higher rate indicates a stronger preference for immediate rewards, while a lower rate signifies a greater willingness to wait for future benefits.”
Patience can be an effective price risk management strategy, Schulz says.
“Earlier on for 2025, utilizing tools like long put options and Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance provided a price floor at profitable prices while allowing for upside participation in the market,” he says. “As lean hog futures rallied to contract highs, hedging opportunities presented themselves.”
Every year, the industry learns a few lessons that will hopefully stick in the years to come.
Proactive Positioning
Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender with Farm Credit, agrees that disciplined risk management separated top performers in 2025. He also says this past year taught the pork industry the value of maintaining focus on crush margins and protecting positions when opportunities arise.
“Production remains the largest variable, but proactive margin management drives success,” Ford says.
For Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting, it’s hard to pinpoint the biggest lesson learned because everyone’s situation is different in the pork industry today.
“For me, 2025 reminded us of the importance of staying the course and not getting swayed by either fear or greed,” he says. “And that’s easier said than done.”
2025 provided both of these opportunities with just a few months.
“First it was all the doom and gloom that accompanied the tariffs announced in April. December futures were as low as $67/cwt, which is hard to conceive now,” Kalo says. “By late September, lean hog futures rocketed to over $90/cwt, reflecting the exuberance of tight supplies and high prices during the summer months.”
Demand Doesn’t Happen Overnight
Building demand is key, Kalo adds. Producers have shown restraint in growing the supply and have been rewarded for it.
Brian Earnest, lead economist, animal protein at CoBank, says there are lessons to be learned from pork’s neighbors in the meat case this year.
“Sometimes we get tunnel vision, but it is important to see what is going on around us,” Earnest says. “A year ago, analysts saw a contrast of tight cattle supply and exceptional demand and said beef prices will move higher in 2026. The question was how high will it go? Exceptional demand did not happen overnight – it was 20 years in the making.”
Demand growth started at the producer level, he says. Producers recognized collectively that they could improve the consumer’s experience with their product. Then, they worked toward it.
Check out Farm Journal’s PORK 2026 Outlook Series:
Pork Producers Can Beat the Unknowns in 2026 with These Risk Management Tips
