A relatively sideways year ahead in pork production with a need to keep the demand up, Scott Brown, livestock economist, associate extension professor and interim director of the Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at the University of Missouri, forecasts for 2023 pig production.
In a recent “AgriTalk” conversation, Brown says, “We’ve seen kind of a struggle here out of the gate in 2023, and you look at those longer-term futures contracts across there, and to me, that kind of spell that out for all of 2023.”
In terms of growth, Brown believes there could be a slight growth this year—on the productivity side—yet a disease outbreak, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), could change the outlook a bit.
Pork Exports in 2023
This year, Brown says he’s “optimistic” about export demand for pork, yet knows there will not likely be a repeat of 2020 and 2021.
“It would seem like, to me, we have some opportunity,” Brown adds. “Of course, one of the wildcards here on the trade side will be China. What’s China really want at the end of the day? What happens as they walk through their more open COVID policy long-term and what’s that mean for pork demand going there?”
Coming out of the COVID pandemic in the U.S. led to a surge in the economy. As China opens up post-pandemic, the possibility of a similar surge in China is not off the table.
“I’m not so sure that we get the same kind of pop out of that as we got here in the United States,” Brown says. “Hopefully, once they get cases in better shape, that economy starts to grow. I do see positives happening there. And I think that’s positive for trade out of the United States to China.”
Mitigate Risk
Brown says corn prices have been a driver in the markets more than he would have thought.
While feed prices continue to play a large part in an operation’s bottom line, Brown encourages producers to pay attention to opportunities to lay of some risk.
“I’m not great at predicting weather,” Brown notes. “But it sure seems like a lot of folks are suggesting we’re headed for some better weather this year, and I hope that’s the case. I think under that scenario, we all know we likely move corn prices lower, so I might want to protect a little bit—at least a portion of the crop—against that.”
