The pork cutout value hit a new record loss, dropping almost $13 on Tuesday. The primal belly was down more than $59, and primal rib dropping more than $16. Pork futures also dropped again on Wednesday. Experts say U.S. pork export sales have slowed recently, especially to China, where hog prices are now down 65% from the start of the year.
USDA says the wholesale U.S. pork carcass cutout price is now down more than 10% over the past two weeks. Analysts say the post-pandemic reopening of the economy helped drive prices and demand earlier in the year.
“Obviously, the futures track did pretty well on the hog side and then kind of some capitulation yesterday. So hard to say where the floor is. I wouldn’t be shocked to see us run down below $100 on the August,” says John Payne, author of Swine Times. “That’s still really expensive, but that puts it at a very big, big discount compared to where the cash is. So we’re all going to watch cash continue to fall post Fourth of July like we normally would. But there might be an uptick in the bellies coming. The export market is difficult to predict. I think there will be some buyers on the dips, at least initially.”
In its monthly cold storage report USDA showed U.S. frozen pork stockpiles at 461 million pounds. That’s down 1.5% from last year but up almost a full percent from the end of April.
