With the release of the latest USDA’s Hogs and Pigs Report, Lee Schulz, chief economist with Ever.Ag, says it could be August before getting back to breakeven.
“I think there’s still been a lot of financial healing going on in the industry because of the losses that we’ve seen in ’23 and ’24, and the situation has changed rather quickly,” Schulz says. “If you go back to about two months ago, late April, we’ve seen forecasts that really got us close to breakeven, then we would hover around that breakeven from a cumulative standpoint.”
The industry is starting to see profits from a cumulative standpoint similar to levels in August 2022.
“That really shows you that our situation has changed quite a bit, but we’re still kind of back to maybe those levels in 2022 and so why we haven’t seen many changes in the inventories in this last couple of reports, it’s really indicative of what we’ve seen from a financial situation.”
He didn’t see many surprises with the report compared to pre-report expectations.
“Our breeding herd is under 6 million head — 28,000 head fewer than this time last year, or half a percent smaller than than this last time last year, so even if you’re culling at a same rate, you’re calling from a lower base, and so we would expect a little bit lower from a sow slaughter standpoint,” Schulz says.
According to the WASDE report from June 12, the forecasts for 2025 production was for .7% increase, which Schulz says is reflective of the increases in litter rates, slight increases in carcass weights, given a slightly larger production.
“I think this level of production is pretty consistent with the latest Hog and Pigs Report, and we shouldn’t see any major revisions to this in the next was the release in July,” he adds.
63% of producers responded to the survey, which reflects data as of June 1, 2025.
Here are additional key takeaways from Schulz from the 2025 Q2 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report discussion hosted by the National Pork Board:
1. Market Fundamentals
- Slaughter is down only about 0.4% when adjusted for calendar differences (last year two more dates than in 2025 included in report)
- Hog weights are stable, only up about half a pound year-to-date
- Feeder pig prices suggest available finishing space
2. Disease Impact
- Pathogen detection shows several major pork-producing states above baseline
- Despite disease challenges, national aggregate numbers don’t show large negative impacts
- Individual producers and systems may still be experiencing production challenges
3. Financial Outlook
- 2025 profit estimates average $23 per head (range from $3 loss to $58 profit)
- 2026 profit forecast is $8 per head (range
- Producers are returning to profitability after significant losses in 2023-2024
- Costs are still over 30% higher than in 2020
4. Production Forecasts
- 2025 production expected to increase 0.7%
- 2026 production projected to increase 1.3%
- Continued productivity improvements, producing more pigs with a smaller breeding herd
5. Market Prices
- Expectations of stronger prices in 2025
- Slightly softer prices anticipated in 2026
“In 2025 there’s expectation of stronger prices overall,” Schulz says. “From a composite standpoint, about 8% higher prices in 2025 compared to 2024. This would average about $91/cwt.”
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