The September Hogs and Pigs report inventory numbers came in tighter than expected across nearly all categories relative to pre-report expectations and year-ago levels, signaling contraction, says economist Lee Schulz. The total hogs and pigs inventory on Sept. 1, was 74.3 million head, down 2% from a year ago.
“The market is not expected to see any supply growth in the short term or the longer term,” Schulz said during a webinar hosted by the National Pork Board. “There are about 4 million fewer market hogs and a 600,000-head smaller breeding herd than during the record peak in inventories back in 2019. Producers are responding to the economic headwinds they are facing and trimming inventories.”
He believes high input costs are reflected in the inventory numbers, especially when it comes to the breeding herd being down year over year in seven of the last nine quarters.
“This is leading to even fewer sows being farrowed, as well as limiting farrowing intentions,” Schulz says. “Producers are getting in a cost price squeeze now. Prices have remained flat for much of the year and are now lower than a year ago. Costs have increased this year and are expected to jump again next year. As expected, producers are pulling back on numbers.”
A Look at the Numbers
The total inventory for all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 was 74.3 million head, down 2% from a year ago, and up 2% from June 1.
The market hog inventory on Sept. 1 was 68.4 million, down 2% from 2025 but up 2% from the previous quarter. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 56% of the total U.S. hog inventory on Sept. 1, up 4% from 2025.
The breeding inventory came in at 5.875 million head, down 1% from a year ago, and down slightly from June 1. The June through August 2026 pig crop, at 34.5 million head, was down 2% from 2025. The number of sows that farrowed during this three-month period was down 3% from 2025 at 2.89 million head, which represents 49% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.96 for the June through August 2026 period, compared to 11.82 last year.
U.S. hog producers intend to farrow 2.855 million sows during the September through November 2026 quarter, down 2% from the actual sows farrowing during the same period in 2025, and down 2% from the same period in 2024. Intended sows farrowing for December 2026 through February 2027, at 2.795 million sows, are up 2% from the same period in 2025, but down 1% from the same period in 2024.
All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2025 through June 2026 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2026 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.7%. A revision of 0.4% was made to the March through May 2026 pig crop. A net revision of 1.0% was made to the March 2026 all hogs and pigs inventory. The net revision made to the December 2025 through February 2026 pig crop was 1.9%.
Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio were states with notable inventory growth; Ohio’s market hog inventory increased 8.9% compared to Sept. 1, 2025.
Record Productivity but Inventory Reduction
Productivity continues to climb. The June through August 2026 litter rate set an all-time record for any quarter of 11.96 pigs, up 1.2% year over year and the 21st consecutive quarter of flat or higher year-over-year productivity.
Schulz also points out the June through August 2026 number of sows farrowed fell 2.7% year over year, down more than pre-report expectations. The pig crop, the product of sows farrowing and pigs saved per litter, came in at 34.5 million head, down 1.5% year over year, he notes.
“Pig crops are getting smaller,” Schulz says. “Productivity levels are greater than a year ago, but not as much as the reduction in the number of sows farrowing. This is the smallest June through August pig crop since 2002.”
A Look at Farrowing Intentions
The September through November 2026 farrowing intentions were down 1.8% year over year, much smaller than pre-report expectations. The December 2026 through February 2027 farrowing intentions were up 2.1% year over year compared to the lower base from a year ago, but Schulz says this historically would be the smallest December through February farrowing since 2014 notwithstanding last year.
“When you don’t compare it to last year, and compare it to historical levels, it is relatively small and very much in line with where the breeding herd estimate is at,” he says.
The breeding herd utilization rate for the September through November 2026 quarter is 48.6%.
“That is a bit smaller than the 10-year average,” Schulz says. “We do see some upward adjustment in the number of sows farrowing, or we could have a breeding herd that is actually a bit smaller than what was reported here.”
Early 2027 Estimated Returns Suggest Red Ink
Based on lowered price projections prior to the Hogs and Pigs report and increased cost of production pressures, Schulz makes these key points:
- Year-to-date hog prices have averaged 4% lower than last year (weaker since June).
- 2026 annual average hog price is projected down about 6% ($87/carcass cwt) compared to 2025.
- Cumulative profits since 2020 averaged $3/head marketed in August 2026, projected to be breakeven by May 2027 at current futures prices.
2026 profitability is forecast at an annual average of $2.50/head (ranging from a $20/head profit this past summer to a -$34/head loss projected for December). He adds that futures markets currently imply a projected loss of $22/head in 2027 (though historical profitability levels suggest potential upside from this early projection).
“The report is bullish, given where the numbers were relative to pre-report expectations and relative to year ago levels,” he says. “We’ll see how that is reflected in the markets going forward.”
Schulz applauds the increase in the number of producers responding to the USDA Hogs & Pigs report survey. The survey response rate was 66% for the Sept. 1 report, up from 63% in June and 63% a year ago.
