Pork is at risk of becoming a protein of the past, says Chad Groves, President and CEO of Seaboard Foods.
“We’ve optimized the pig, and de-optimized the plate,” Groves said during a keynote address at the Allen D. Leman Swine Conference. “We focused on the producer and feed efficiency. Grids and packers rewarded it.”
The result? Domestic pork consumption has remained stagnant at roughly 50 lb. per capita since 1970—55 years without moving the needle at home.
“If you look at the relationship between consumption and production, what sits at the center? That’s where we got it wrong,” Groves says. “The center of that diagram right now is the producer, incentivized to focus on feed efficiency and yield. The center needs to be the consumer. We need to understand that consumer and be relentless in fulfilling their demand.”
What Happened When Beef Traded Volume for Value?
To understand where pork lost its footing, Groves pointed to the beef industry’s transformation. In 1987, beef leaders made a deliberate pivot toward eating quality, focusing heavily on genetics for marbling and tenderness.
The results were transformative:
- The USDA Prime category expanded fivefold, while lower-grade USDA Select nearly vanished from retail.
- Today, 83% of U.S. beef grades Choice or Prime.
- Beef cutout value surged 3.3x (up +78% adjusted for inflation), even as per-capita volume dropped nearly in half.
“These aren’t just government labels. They are global quality signals that consumers recognize and trust,” Groves says. “Consumers were trained on what Prime and Choice mean, and they proved they are willing to pay for that guaranteed experience.”
By contrast, pork cutout value rose just 1.9x over the same period—virtually flat when adjusted for inflation.
“When is the last time you had a bad steak? It rarely happens; even when slightly overcooked, you still get a decent experience,” Groves says. “That’s not the case with pork. It remains inconsistent. It can be great or subpar, and there is always the fear of overcooking it.”
Six Numbers That Will Make You Uncomfortable
While the U.S. industry got exceptionally good at raising more pounds with fewer resources, Groves emphasized that five consecutive years of producer financial stress prove the current model is broken.
He shared six data points illustrating the structural crisis:
- 50 lbs.: U.S. per capita pork today (same as 1970)
- +46%: U.S. production growth
- +430%: U.S. pork exports growth since 2000
- 1.9x: Pork cutout since 2000
- 6.0M: U.S. breeding sow herd (fewer than in 1990)
- -$32/head: 2023 average loss worst since 1998
“Our current business model is not economically sustainable,” Groves notes. “We’ve hit a point where record global demand is no longer translating into producer margins.”
Why the Old Playbook Won’t Save Us
For decades, the U.S. industry relied on export expansion to absorb excess supply. But Groves warns that a global demand ceiling is looming, and low-cost competitors are eroding America’s advantage. According to Rabobank data, Brazil’s cost of production is $1.10/lb., compared to $1.35/lb. in the U.S. and $1.42/lb in Canada.
Domestically, demographic headwinds are accelerating:
- Generational Decline: Baby Boomers, pork’s most loyal consumers, are aging out. Gen Z and Millennials buy fresh pork at significantly lower rates.
- Household Penetration: 38% of U.S. households are now non-pork consumers.
- Changing Lifestyles: As household budgets tighten, traditional cooked breakfasts are skipped first. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications (projected to reach 10%–25% of the U.S. population) threatens total caloric consumption.
Two Choices: Do Nothing or Adjust
Groves says the pork industry has two options – do nothing or adjust.
“When you put the consumer at the center of the bubble, there’s a lot of opportunity for us to get better in this space,” he says.
One of the challenges the pork industry is facing is that consumers think they want leaner pork and less marbling, but they prefer to eat pork with more marbling.
“That’s where the three shields come into play – the iconic USDA Prime, Choice and Select grading,” Groves says. “You have a mechanism already in place between Select, Choice and Prime that the consumer already registers with a better eating experience. We don’t have that ability today.”
When it comes to beef, USDA Select is hard to find in stores today because everyone prefers Choice and Prime, he says.
“I’m willing to bet when you go back to 1987 when beef went down this path, the consumer told them they wanted a leaner product, but they craved a more marbled product,” Groves says. “Give them what they crave and they’ll come back to the category. We are capable of producing a better product.”
It’s Time for a New Playbook
But how do you get pork producers on board? Groves says it starts by creating an incentive structure that gets the money back to the farm. When producers get paid for producing a higher quality product, you’ll get there, he adds.
“For 55 years we focused on pricing,” Groves says. “That’s a playbook that has led us to the exact same place we started. What consumers have said is they’re willing to go to both extremes, and pork is caught right in the middle where that convenience and ingredient aspect is going to chicken and creating the rise in consumption. Meanwhile, beef is focused on the eating experience at a reduction in their volume.”
Groves says it’s time to stop chasing volume at the expense of value, put the consumer at the center and deliver an eating experience worth paying for.
