Hog prices, wholesale cuts and export markets are sending mixed signals that matter to producers and shoppers nationwide, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
U.S. pork production is up 1.3% so far this year compared to 2025, though output has eased about half a percent over the past four weeks, says David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. Even with supplies holding steady, hog prices have not kept pace with last year’s levels, leaving what Anderson calls a pricing conundrum.
Farrow-to-finish producers have logged 25 straight months of profitability, according to an Iowa State University model Anderson tracks, a sharp turnaround from 2023-2024, when losses reached as much as $50 per head in the worst months. This year’s profits, which have ranged from about $2.60 to $52 per head, have been driven mostly by cheaper feed and corn rather than strong hog prices.
“We’re producing about the same amount of pork as we did last year, yet prices have really lagged behind,” Anderson says. “We haven’t seen the increase, and it’s kind of a conundrum.”
Seasonal swings drive hog and wholesale prices
Pork production and prices typically follow a predictable seasonal rhythm, Anderson says. Output is lowest in the summer, when heat makes it harder for hogs to gain weight, and highest in the fall and early in the year.
National hog prices reflected that seasonal climb last week, averaging roughly 97 cents a pound compared to about $1.07 per pound, a year ago.
Wholesale cuts showed the same seasonal price increases, though year-over-year comparisons varied by cut.
- Spareribs brought $1.74 per pound last week, up from $1.65 per pound a year ago, though down from $1.96 per pound six weeks earlier.
- Pork bellies, driven by bacon demand, jumped to $1.93 per pound from $1.46 per pound just six weeks ago but remained below last year’s $2.13 per pound.
- Pork loins climbed to $1.11 per pound from $1.04 per pound six weeks ago, but still lower than last year’s $1.16 per pound.
“Hog prices have surged in the last few weeks as production has come down a little,” Anderson says. “But it’s still not where it was a year ago.”
Pork holds its value against beef
At the grocery store, pork remains a middle-ground option — pricier than chicken, but far cheaper than beef, Anderson says. The July Consumer Price Index showed retail pork averaging $4.89 per pound, down from $5.01 per pound a year ago. Beef, meanwhile, climbed to $10.49 per pound from $9.69 per pound, and chicken slipped to $2.01 per pound from $2.08 per pound.
Anderson says the pork industry continues to search for new marketing positions beyond mainstays like bacon and sausage for breakfast.
Products like ground pork increasingly sit alongside ground beef, turkey and chicken, and there continues to be a boom in sausages within Texas barbecue, as well as charcuterie and other smoked pork products, Anderson says. High beef prices are squeezing margins at barbecue restaurants, pushing many to lean harder on chicken and pork offerings. But pork still lacks a fast-food staple to rival the chicken sandwich or tenders or the hamburger, limiting its reach in the restaurant world.
Sow herd keeps shrinking even as output grows
Despite more than two years of profitability, producers have not expanded their herds.
The nation’s sow herd has declined for years, Anderson says. Production gains are instead coming from record numbers of pigs born per litter and heavier carcass weights — barrow and gilt dressed weights averaged 211 pounds last week, up from 209 pounds a year ago.
The lack of production growth is largely because building new sow facilities means taking on high construction and financing costs, he says.
“Those profits have not translated to increased production,” Anderson says. “If I’m going to expand my sow herd, I’ve got to build more buildings, and that gets into concrete, steel and interest rates.”
Mexico anchors exports as China trade slows
Exports continue to help solidify overall demand for U.S. pork. About 20% to 30% of pork produced ends up on the global market.
Overall pork exports are running ahead of last year, buoyed by stronger sales to Japan, Anderson says. But exports to China have “really suffered” amid tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and export-plant approval issues. The U.S. shipped just 23.1 million pounds of pork to China in June, down from 36.7 million pounds a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 78.9 million pounds for the month.
Mexico has emerged as the dominant buyer, importing 226 million pounds of U.S. pork in June, compared to 87 million pounds by Japan and 33.4 million pounds by Canada. That marks a shift from 2020 and 2021, when China was the top market for U.S. pork as African swine fever devastated its domestic herd.
“Mexico has become a hugely important market for us as exports to China dipped,” Anderson says. “But exports continue to be a big part of the pie for us.”
