What Will Easter Ham Purchases Tell Us About Consumer Demand for Pork in 2021?

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Easter 2021 will likely be an indicator again of how people consume and behave during the winter holiday. As vaccines roll out, pandemic restrictions ease and families start to travel more, what kind of shift will we see in buying behavior at the pork retail case?

Neal Hull, director of channel marketing with the National Pork Board, says Easter 2020 was obviously very different due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only did it change how people gathered and ate, it had a big impact on pork and ham sales. To a large degree, he expects 2021 to be somewhat similar.

“When we look at U.S. retail ham sales for the three weeks leading up to Easter 2020, we saw a 1.7% increase in total pounds sold – 108.6 million pounds sold in 2020 versus 107 million pounds sold in 2019,” Hull says. “The dollar spend for the same period was up 14.5% at $248.7 million versus $217.3 million.”

Why the disparity in volume sold and dollar spend? He says the increases were driven by a few pandemic factors.

“Early in the pandemic, families were looking for those traditional holiday experiences even though many could not gather with family outside their household,” Hull says. “The 2% increase in volume may indicate that the Easter ham was part of consumers’ plans to try to keep the holiday as normal as possible in a very abnormal circumstance.”

In addition, because large family gatherings weren’t taking place, consumers sought smaller portions. Instead of buying the more traditional 10- to 12-pound Easter ham, sales of half- or quarter-hams and ham steaks increased. These typically have a higher unit price, Hull explains. Although there was only a slight increase in volume, it was cut and portioned differently, which affected the per pound pricing.

“Consumers were also purchasing more boneless ham options in 2020 compared to 2019,” he adds. “Growth in boneless hams was up 16% by pounds and 31% by dollars. With many at-home cooks preparing their first Easter dinner, the ease and convenience of boneless hams was likely impacted by this trend.”

Easter Buying Behavior Repeated During Winter Holidays
How Easter unfolded for consumers last year was largely repeated during the winter holidays. Hull says that’s why the National Pork Board has been working closely with retailers to help them understand how the dynamics of consumer behavior at Easter can help inform purchasing and merchandising decisions for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

“I think Easter will play out similar to last year,” Hull says. “But pork and ham specifically for Easter is really that food occasion that people gather around the table and it really brings families together. I think as restrictions ease, you're going to continue to see pork as really central to that meal occasion and continue to drive growth.”

Two leaders in the growth category right now are shoulders and ribs, he says, closely followed by ground pork. 

“Ground pork has been one of those shining stars in the pork category this past year and one of those areas that we're really focused on moving forward,” Hull says.

If there is a bright side to the pandemic, he says it’s been really good for the pork category as consumers are spending more time at home cooking and trying new recipes. 

“I always say the core consumer for the pork category is the boomer,” Hull says. “But we need to continue to try to access and influence that younger consumer. That's one of the things that ground pork was so influential on – it really gave them an access point into the category. Grinds are easy and then you get into fun dishes like egg roll bowl or pork wontons and all of a sudden you feel like you're a gourmet chef when you're really not.”

Read more:

Will Ham Prices Make Consumers Think Twice?

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