Unmet Needs: Will California Struggle to Meet Pork Demand with Prop 12?

While producers within the state of California will be required to convert production practices to comply with Proposition 12, the ultimate decision for pork producers across other states to comply is dependent on the producer.

However, as Judge Brett Kavanaugh says in his opinion included in the Supreme Court ruling documents, “California’s 13-percent share of the consumer pork market makes it economically infeasible for many pig farmers and pork producers to exit the California market.”

Conversion of existing barns and the loss of productivity, however, does not come without costs.

Petitioners of the law noted that producers across the U.S. may need to spend between $290 and $348 million of additional capital in order to reconstruct their sow housing and overcome the productivity loss that Proposition 12 imposes. Overall, this will increase production costs per pig by over $13 per head, a 9.2% increase at the farm level, Judge John Roberts noted in his opinion.

More Than Just 13%

In a recent Farm Country Update, Lee Schulz, livestock economist at Iowa State University explains how California’s pork consumption is more complex than thinking that only 13% of pork will need to meet Proposition 12 requirements.

“As we think about California, they roughly consume 13% of the nation’s pork, but that’s not 13% of the nation’s hogs necessarily,” Schulz notes. “When you think about hogs, they come in fixed proportions. We get the same amount of individual cuts from each pig. That doesn’t say that California is necessarily going to consume that in equal proportion.”

He explains how products are sent to different markets to receive the highest value, the same case applies here. While California consumes roughly 13% of the production, there’s going to need to be a larger percentage of production to comply to meet the state’s demands. Now, there’s a bit of uncertainty of how big that production necessarily needs to be to meet that market.

Other unknowns also include who will produce and process pork specifically for California, says Michelle Rook, AgDay reporter, as well as how processors will keep products segregated for that market.

Will the Rest of the U.S. Comply?

“On our family’s farm, we do not intend to change our production practices,” says Scott Hays, president of National Pork Producers Council and Missouri pig farmer. “The main reason for that is we don’t believe this is better for the pigs. We’ve raised pigs for over 100 years, and we spent our entire lives trying to make life better for the pig. This forces some practices that we just don’t believe are better.”

Josh Trenary, executive director of the Indiana Pork Producers Association, says pig farmers across his state are mixed. While not a sow-heavy state, Trenary explains some farms had been proactively converting prior to the Supreme Court ruling. Others in the state, however, are staying the course and are not planning to change.

"We all know what's correct for our animals and our farm and our facilities, and it get's tough when one state or two states or any activist group tries to tell us what to do and they really have no idea," adds Matt Gent of the Iowa Pork Producers Association.

Producers who are working to comply with Proposition 12 requirements are finding certification as a hurdle. There is a lack of approved firms available to certify facilities, says Trenary. 

"It’s a real challenge,” Hays adds. “A farm is not compliant until the state hands them a certificate that says they're Prop 12 compliant. They've been very slow about doing that, so it’s really been unfair to these producers that have spent the money to make conversions to the best of their knowledge, yet the state is not confirming for them that they’re doing it right.”

Schulz notes that certification is also not costless and will be another aspect of implementing Prop 12 that will ultimately raise costs for consumers. Additionally, certification presents a concern in biosecurity, which is critical to the pork industry.

"We want to take care of the welfare of the animals. We want our biosecurity," says Craig Andersen, a Centerville, S.D. pork producer. "That's one of the things that's really going to be thrown out the door too with this because these inspections are supposed to be done at any time.

With Prop 12 no longer in question at the courts, producers will need to depend on state and federal lawmakers to make any further changes.

The full Farm Country Update, featuring Hays, Schulz and Trenary, can be found here.

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