The spread of African swine fever (ASF) isn’t slowing down across the globe. Rabobank says this will continue to impact production and trade for pork producers around the world.
ASF Cases in Germany and Italy Spread Risks to Western Europe
The deadly virus of pigs continues to remain active in eastern Europe and spread west from its first appearance in Germany in September 2020.
The disease has jumped to domestic farms close to the French and Dutch viruses. Meanwhile, in Italy, the virus has traveled from the initial outbreak area toward Rome, approximately 250 miles away.
Experts believe human activity is to blame for the spread as wild boar movements are typically confined to smaller areas. Regardless of whether the cases are being discovered on commercial farms or in wild boar populations, the outcome is the same: trade disruptions.
“ASF-related trade restrictions, however, disrupt European markets, creating an oversupply of certain products and pressuring prices,” Rabobank says in its Global Pork Quarterly Q3 report. “German is suffering from discounted carcass values as the markets for large offtakers of offal – such as China and South Korea – remain closed.”
Source: Rabobank
ASF Threatens Asia and North America Pork Industries
ASF continues to impact local production and prices in Asia, Rabobank reports. Due to large culling and liquidation activity driven by ASF, USDA estimates Thailand’s pork supply could drop by over 35% in 2022. The pork retail price in Thailand has surged by 60% since September 2021.
Source: Rabobank
“ASF, the pork shortage, and other factors have driven poultry prices up more than 40% during the same period,” Rabobank reports. “In Vietnam and the Philippines, ASF shows no sign of stopping.”
Rabobank predicts 2022 production in the Philippines to grow only marginally compared to 2021, despite government efforts around disease production. Vietnam’s herd inventory has grown slowly in the first half of 2022 with hog pries gradually increasing, the report says.
Closer to home, ASF remains an issue in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, but it remains contained, Rabobank says. Testing capabilities are being added and the industry is focusing on reducing the spread of this virus.
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