U.S. pork producers in 2026 can expect profitability to remain steady, at least through the third quarter, Ever.Ag Chief Livestock Economist Lee Schulz told attendees Wednesday at Iowa Pork Congress in Des Moines.
“Markets are dynamic, and things are going to change,” Schulz says. “But right now we’re at a pretty healthy spot as prices and margins reflect.”
After a relatively large hog price increase of 9% in 2025, the forecasts call for a 1% price decrease in 2026. Meanwhile, gains in productivity have supported strong supply, despite a decrease in the sow herd.
“The industry has the smallest December breeding herd since 2014,” Schulz says. “Yet – and this is a credit to all pork producers here and participants in this industry – you delivered to the market the largest September through November pig crop ever.”
The pig crop was nearly 35 million head with a record-high pigs per litter of 11.93, according to data published by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Those results show a “tremendous” ability to compete domestically as well as in the global market, he adds.
Demand Depends on Consumer Willingness and Ability to Pay
Turning that ability to produce pork into more dollars requires consumers willing and able to pay higher prices for the product, Schulz says. Pork disappearance in 2025 is forecast slightly lower compared to 2024 once numbers are finalized. Disappearance is expected to increase in 2026.
The key will be the price consumers are willing to pay for that increased volume.
“If it’s at a high enough price, that would grow the whole pie for the entire pork industry,” he says.
The ability to maintain or increase exports is one factor that will impact domestic availability and prices. U.S. pork exports achieved record high volume and value in 2024. The forecast for 2025 exports was down 2.3% by volume but up 1.8% for 2026.
The U.S. in 2024 overtook the European Union as the leading exporter of pork worldwide. That trend is forecast to expand with the U.S. exporting 3.18 million metric tons in 2026 compared to 2.75 million metric tons exported from the E.U.
Wholesale and Retail Prices Out of Sync
Strong exports since 2024 have supported strong wholesale prices, Schulz says. Packer demand has also had a positive impact on wholesale pork prices. He estimates integrated packer net margins were $16 per head higher in 2025 than 2024. Net margins where hogs are purchased improved but remained $4 per head lower in 2025 compared to 2024.
“That has brought some strength to the wholesale values,” Schulz says.
Pork cutout prices so far in January 2026 are at a record high, and they were higher for 43 of 52 weeks of 2025 compared to 2024.
Retail pork prices have increased modestly by comparison. Retail prices increased in 2025 by 1.4% and are forecast to increase by an average of 1.1% in 2026.
That pork price increase has been slower than general inflation level indicated by the Consumer Price Index released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This has resulted in pork being very competitive in the retail meat case. Household finances, however, are still critical to purchases. Consumers reporting improved finances, spend 17% and 28% more on food than those reporting the same or worse conditions, respectively, with the biggest difference being in away-from-home spending. That data comes from the Meat Demand Monitor maintained at Kansas State University.
“Financial Healing” Continues
At the farm gate, nominal receipts are high when compared year to year, but inflation has eroded some of the purchasing power of those receipts, Schulz said. The nominal cash receipts in 2025 of $29.9 billion can buy fewer goods and services than the cash receipts of about $28 billion in 2021.
“Keep that in mind when you look at some of the price forecast and profitability forecasts,” Schulz says. “Understand that they’re not as strong necessarily due to impact of inflation and how far those dollars can stretch for producers.”
Another thing to keep in mind about current profit per head and what it means for potential growth is that the pork industry is still r ecovering from record losses in 2023 and early 2024. Cumulative profits since 2020 hit break-even in August 2025.
“Financial healing will continue to occur,” he says. “As you think about expansion in the industry, profits drive expansion – not prices. And higher levels of risk usually require higher levels of profit. I’m not here to say at what level we start to see potential growth in the industry, especially in the sow herd, but at current forecasts it’s going to take until October of this year just to get back to the point the industry was at in August 2022. Keep that in mind when you think about the number and pace of investments in the industry.”
