John Phipps: Is There a Shortage of Young Farmers?

Today, a question that seems to be an abiding worry about young farmers.

“Many of the segments we see on your show that interview people or pan across the audience do not seem to be as ‘youthful looking’ as you would see when looking at cross sections of workers in other industries. I'm afraid that there will come a time when there will be too much land and not enough people to work it?  Am I worrying about nothing?”

That’s from David Sick, in Smithville, Mo. The short answer is there is very little to worry about. I have answered this question many times in many forms over the years, but I understand how it can be a recurring concern. I hope these brief facts can help.

Farmers are selected by access to land, period. That means the right parents or very good luck. The next generation of farmers is often unseen since they are not on the farm yet, they are working another job until there is room for them to join.

Farm organizations are traditionally seniority biased, so pictures of farm leaders are like leaders of any other industry – people in at least mid-career. Which adds an additional dimension – the older generation may not be ready or able to step aside, and with self-employed businesses, there is no mandatory company retirement age.

Farmers are like investment managers. If you won the lottery, would you be most likely to trust your wealth to an advisor you went to school with or someone just out of college? Success in renting ground likewise begins with trust, which is a product of shared history. Since farmland is overwhelmingly owned by older, local people, it is natural for them to trust it to people they have known. Any family connection obviously overrides talent as well.

It is mathematically improbable to borrow enough to buy land and rolling capital as well as generate living income. Even with off-farm income it is unlikely. As medical science and better lifestyle choices extend active working lives, opportunities are fewer and competition intense. All this underlines farming is far less about hard physical work than hard assets, so the young muscle and energy advantage has faded.

The bottom line is farming is a great job that many people want to enjoy, but many people also want to be successful lawyers, salespeople, and artists. Desire is not sufficient to ensure such a career. But like farmland, of which I have spoken maybe too often, the supply of aspiring farmers is more than ample for the foreseeable future.