This afternoon’s Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report showed the U.S. hog herd as of June 1 came in just barely below year-ago in terms of total numbers. Of the total inventory, market hogs and breeding hogs are virtually unchanged from year-ago. Traders were anticipating a slight uptick in the total number of hogs, with a modest increase in market hog numbers.
The steady-with-year-ago spring pig crop is the result of a 2% drop in March-May farrowings and a 2% increase in pigs per litter. With optimism in the hog industry building, producers indicated intentions to hold summer farrowings steady with year-ago and to increase fall farrowings by only 1%. But, if market hog prices remain firm and feed prices soften, we wonder if second-half farrowing intentions in this report won’t prove to be light. With most of the report numbers coming in close to the average pre-report guesses, the data is mostly neutral for hog futures. Most of traders’ focus will be on the cash and product markets as they watch for signs of a seasonal top.
Quarterly H&P Report
| USDA
| Avg. trade guess
| Range
|
% of year-ago | |||
All Hogs and Pigs | 100
| 100.6
| 100.0-101.2
|
Kept for breeding | 100
| 99.9
| 99.6-100.3
|
Kept for marketing | 100
| 100.7
| 100.0-101.3
|
Mar-May pig crop | 100
| 100.1
| 99.2-100.7
|
Mar-May pigs per litter | 102
| 101.0
| 99.9-101.3
|
Mar-May farrowings | 98
| 99.1
| 99.0-99.2
|
June-Aug farrowing int. | 100 | 99.9
| 99.2-101.2
|
Sept-Nov farrowing int. | 101
| 100.5
| 100.2-101.6
|
Hogs under 50 lbs. | 99
| 100.6
| 99.2-101.4
|
Hogs 50 to 119 lbs. | 100
| 100.5
| 100.1-101.6
|
Hogs 120-179 | 101
| 100.8
| 100.4-101.7
|
Hogs 180 and over | 101
| 100.5
| 100.2-101.0
|
