China’s pork production rose 7% in the last quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday, marking the highest fourth-quarter output since 2018, as hog producers accelerated slaughtering to reduce the herd size.
Output during October-December in the world’s largest pork producer surged to 15.7 million metric tons, a Reuters calculation based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
“Overall, the data aligns with expectations. In the fourth quarter, influenced by policy guidance and the typical rush to sell pigs as prices drop, slaughtering accelerated, resulting in higher output,” said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.
China slaughtered 719.73 million hogs in 2025, up 2.4% from a year earlier, the NBS data showed.
Pork production in 2025 rose 4.1% to 59.38 million tons.
Cash hog prices were 12.6 yuan ($1.81) per kg on Monday, down from 15.4 yuan per kg during the same period last year, according to consultancy MySteel data.
China’s massive hog sector continues to struggle with overcapacity amid weak consumer demand.
Authorities have stepped up efforts to manage overcapacity, urging major firms to reduce breeding sows, keep hog weight to around 120 kg, and tightened credit and subsidies.
“For 2026, prices are expected to rebound at the end of the second quarter. While a modest increase has been seen, it’s likely driven by pre-holiday stockpiling,” said Pan.
“After the Spring Festival, prices may dip briefly, but a more significant rebound is anticipated by late second quarter or early third quarter, driven by reduced sow numbers and lower pork production,” she added.
China’s pig herd size at the end of December was up 0.5% from the previous year at429.67 million head, the NBS data showed.
($1 = 6.9638 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Tom Hogue and Christian Schmollinger)
