Brazil pork exports are forecast to expand 5% in 2025 given expected higher pork production and strong international demand, according to the latest USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade Report.
“Brazil’s position as an inexpensive supplier of pork, driven by comparatively low labor and feed costs, has allowed Brazil to expand market opportunities rapidly in recent years and is expected to sustain growth in 2025 despite global trade uncertainties,” the authors of the report write.
As tariffs and animal health issues shift market dynamics in 2025, Brazil is expected to gain market share in price sensitive markets. China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on both Canada and the U.S., which are expected to decrease demand for pork from both countries.
In addition, China also launched an anti-dumping probe against the European Union (EU) that is set to conclude on June 17. Meanwhile, African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Europe, the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea continue to impact production in these countries, the experts write.
“Like other major pork exporters, Brazil became heavily concentrated to the China market in 2020 and 2021 as China production suffered from domestic outbreaks of African swine fever,” the report says. “China accounted for 55% of Brazil pork exports in 2020, but that share has steadily declined to 18% in 2024. Lower pork exports from Brazil to China have been driven by weaker China import demand, stemming from China’s slowdown in economic growth and rebound in domestic pork production.”
Brazil’s recent export growth has been underpinned by the ability to switch markets quickly as a result of new market access and Brazil’s position as a low-cost pork supplier.
New Market Access
Brazil gained access to 17 new pork export markets and exported pork to over 100 different countries in 2024, the report says.
Despite sharp declines in exports to China last year, Brazil more than offset those losses with higher shipments to the Philippines, Chile and Japan. Brazil also increased exports by nearly 20% to countries outside of its top five export markets, with notable increases to Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina and the Dominican Republic.
“Brazil’s ability to quickly shift export markets will be key to sustaining export growth in 2025,” the authors write.
Low-Cost Supplier of Pork
Despite increasing pork export prices throughout 2024, Brazil pork remains at a significant discount compared to other major exporters, the report notes. This price competitiveness will boost sales to several markets, including Japan, which is expected to be the second-largest importer globally in 2025, behind Mexico.
A weak currency and domestic inflation led Japan retailers to begin purchasing more frozen pork imports in 2024, instead of chilled imports. Last year, Japan increased imports of frozen pork by 86,000 tons carcass-weight equivalent (CWE) and decreased imports of fresh and/or chilled pork by 11,000 tons CWE, the report says.
Japan also reduced imports from the EU, while Brazil market share increased almost 4%. The shift to more frozen product is important to note as most regions of Brazil are not recognized as foot-and-mouth disease free without vaccination and are only eligible to export frozen product to Japan.
“It is anticipated that other major global pork importers will increasingly shift to frozen pork as global economies come under pressure, which may benefit Brazil as a low-cost pork supplier,” the authors write. “Expected growth in 2025 will rely on maintaining low labor and feed costs.”
Experts forecast the U.S. to remain the world’s largest pork exporter next year due to the quality and reliability of U.S. pork despite Brazil’s projected export expansion.
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