It’s no secret there’s trouble in the ag economy. As AgWeb reported in March, the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses. A new report from Bloomberg Law shows family farm bankruptcies are also on the rise.
Bloomberg Law’s Alex Wolf and Skye Witley recently reported that family farm bankruptcies had already increased by 55% last year compared to 2023. And there’s no sign of that slowing down, as Wolf and Witley report bankruptcies are trending even higher this year. That’s as farmers continue to grapple with depressed agricultural commodity prices and high input costs.
“And while much of the industrywide distress predates his second stint in the White House, (President Donald) Trump has quickly nudged more farmers closer to the brink of going under and created turbulence for producers trying to make ends meet,” Wolf and Witley reported in the Bloomberg Law story. “Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts and frozen Agriculture Department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.”
The report shows the last time farm bankruptcy filings soared was in 2019, which was the height of the previous trade war with China. The previous Trump administration sent farmers more than $20 billion in Market Facilitation Program payments (MFP) to help cover export losses.
Following that financial aid to farmers, the report shows family farm bankruptcies, filed under Chapter 12 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, declined each year until 2024.
According to court records, the number of new cases in 2024 jumped to 216 from a near 20-year low of 139. The report also shows those filings have continued to speed up this year, with 82 cases filed over the first three months of 2025, which is nearly double the figure for the same period a year ago.
$10 Billion in ECAP Money to Farmers
More help is on the way, if not already on farm. That’s because the American Relief Act of 2025, which was passed by Congress late last year, authorized the $10 billion for ECAP payments to help offset losses growers incurred during the 2024 crop year. Those payments are being dispersed now, and farmers have until August to sign up.
According to Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist and a current emeritus fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute, direct payments have helped farmers. But the threat of farm bankruptcies, and the reality of financial pain if markets don’t improve, is still there
“Remember, we are getting a ton of money put into the sector this year from the bill that was passed by Congress in December,” Glauber told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “So that’s $31 billion coming in with $10 billion of that going out to farmers as direct income support to offset low margins. So, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of farms going out of business. But certainly, if these short, tight margins persist for a long time, then that’s going to affect people.”
Rural Bankers Show Concern
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the number of farm loans at risk of defaulting is the highest it’s been since 2020 as demand for non-real-estate farm loans has surged while repayment rates dropped. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago serves the Seventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Iowa, and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Ag lenders are also concerned. The most recent Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) shows for the 19th time in the past 20 months, the RMI sank below the 50.0 growth reading in April. This specific index surveys bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
While tariffs and Trump’s focus on trade are causing uncertainty, Ernie Goss, MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University, says ag lenders are actually supportive of Trump’s tough stance on trade.
“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak, according to bank CEOs. Despite the negative fallout from tariffs, 75% of bankers support the tariffs on China, and 79.2% back the 90-day pause on other tariffs,” Goss told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “I’m an economist and we economists, we’re not very keen on tariffs and trade restrictions. Nonetheless, the bankers, three out of the four bankers are supportive of what the president’s doing there, and I would argue that the farmers are on the president’s side as well.”
The RMI also found rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to a weak 36.0 from March’s 30.4.
“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, pushed banker confidence lower,” Goss said.
Cotton Hit Especially Hard
Cotton farmers are especially feeling the pain with younger farmers already having difficulty getting financed for this year. Cheap cotton prices and dwindling demand are just part of the problem. Input costs have climbed, and there’s no safety net to be found from a new farm bill. One Georgia farmer told Farm Journal that the current farm bill is irrelevant and worthless, and if a new one doesn’t get passed this year, the cotton industry is doomed.
“We’re going to plant cotton and don’t even have a clue if we’re going to get our money back,” says Franz Rowland, who grows cotton in Boston, Ga. “There’s no farm bill to support us, and the reference price is so low that it’s not anything that we can depend on. So, we’re going to put several million dollars in the ground and don’t even know if we’re going to get it back.”
As president and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC), Gary Adams sees and hears the somber situation for U.S. cotton farmers from coast to coast. Adams says the outlook for 2025 is even worse than 2024.
“We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm,” he says. “Unfortunately, where the industry is, that’s what it looks like as we’re going into 2025.”
Darren Hudson is the Larry Combest endowed chair for agricultural competitiveness and director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness at Texas Tech University. Hudson focuses on cotton, and on “AgriTalk” this week, he described why cotton farmers, and the entire cotton industry, is feeling the pinch.
“Cotton is fairly input intensive anyway, and so urea, nitrogen costs, all these chemical costs, they’re facing those just like every other farmer out there, but we’ve had three consecutive really bad moisture years,” Hudson told “AgriTalk.” “So, we have a long way to go to get back to what you think of as normal growing conditions.”
Hudson says three consecutive years of declining production due to drought isn’t just a problem for producers, it’s also the cotton infrastructure that relies on that crop.
“We’ve had three years, you know, that processing infrastructure all that stuff is strained and disappearing, and it’s getting harder and harder to farm as a cotton farmer out here,” says Hudson, who’s based in Lubock, Texas. “We’re not unusual compared to everybody else. We don’t want to sing a sad story, but I think all of ag is in a squeeze at this moment with [commodity] prices versus inputs.”
Is the Ag Industry Ripe for Consolidation?
Another reality for U.S. agriculture, while the majority of farms in the U.S. are small family farms, that sector doesn’t represent the majority of farm production today.
USDA ERS data shows while 88% of U.S. farms are considered “small family farms,” those farms only represent 18.7% of the total U.S. value of farm production.
On the other hand, while 3.4% of U.S. farms are “large-scale family farms,” that sector represents 51.8% of the total value of U.S. farm production.
