Agricultural economists shared their forecasted prices for the next several quarters following the March 25 announcement of the March 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff. The economists agreed the March 2021 report signals opportunity ahead for the industry to recapture some of the losses from a very difficult 2020.
When looking at the production numbers from the report and making price estimates for the remainder of the year, Daniel Bluntzer, director of research for NFC Markets, said it’s important not to buy in too much to where the market is today.
Using the CME Lean Index, Bluntzer quoted:
• second quarter at $96 per cwt.
• third quarter at $91
• fourth quarter at $76
Joe Kerns, president of Partners for Production Agriculture, used the National Net All Price Methods to quote his prices. He forecast:
• second quarter at $101 to $104 per cwt.
• third quarter at $99 to $102
• fourth quarter at $81 to $84
• first quarter of 2022 at $79 to $83
Dr. James Mintert, director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue University, said he used the National Weighted Average Base Carcass Price. He forecast:
• first quarter at $75 per cwt.
• second quarter at $80 to $84
• third quarter at $80 to $85
• fourth quarter at $70 to $76
“If you think about these supply numbers, it was a challenge to think about the change coming in. Looking at prices, we’re all quoting different indexes, which is makes it difficult to compare,” Mintert said. “It might be more useful to think of it in terms of percentage change.”
Mintert said his annual average for 2021 is up about 25% to 27% compared to 2020’s annual average. When comparing 2021 to 2019, his forecast is up 15% to 17%.
“A pretty strong rebound, relative not only to last year, but also to 2019,” he said.
Read more about their analysis of the March 1 Hogs & Pigs Report.
More from Farm Journal’s PORK:
Hogs and Pigs Report: Opportunity Ahead to Recapture 2020’s Losses
Surprise Supply Shock in USDA H&P Report Sets Stage for Improved Hog Prices
