African Swine Fever Leaves a Mark on Poland’s Hog Industry
Hog inventories in Poland decreased by 4% in 2019 due to the continuing spread of African swine fever (ASF) and growing feed costs stemming from the summer 2019 drought.
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, swine inventories will continue to decline in 2020 because of reduced feed supplies during the first half of the year.
ASF is spreading in Poland’s eastern and central regions, and since November 2019, when it was discovered in western Poland near the German border. As of Dec. 31, 48 cases of ASF were reported in domestic swine and 2,468 cases in wild boars.
Most cases occurred in four provinces located in eastern and central Poland, the report explains. In November and December 2019, an ASF outbreak occurred in Lubuskie and Wielkopolskie provinces in western Poland.
“The Wielkopolska Province is Poland’s largest pig producer and accounts for about one-third of Polish hog production,” the report notes. “ASF in this region poses a significant commercial threat to local pig producers and to the entire Polish swine industry, as some trading partners, mostly in Asia, have banned Polish pork imports.”
This puts extra pressure on swine production. Imports of piglets in 2019 from Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands declined from 2018, as the market uncertainty lowered piglet demand among farmers. Pork production in 2019 is estimated to be down by 3% due to lower slaughter.
Farm-gate prices increase
Farm-gate prices for hogs in Poland have increased since April 2019 to record levels due to growing pork exports and strong domestic pork demand. However, despite rising farm-gate prices, growing feed costs and the uncertainty surrounding ASF are expected to adversely affect swine numbers during the first half of 2020, the report says.
Meanwhile, 2019 swine slaughter was 7% lower than in 2018. The average 2019 slaughter weight increased by about 1% over 2018 as farmers struggled to sell hogs in the ASF-affected areas. On-farm slaughter last year remained at 7% of total slaughter, unchanged from 2018.
Not only do analysts expect Poland pork production to decrease in 2020 by additional 4%, but per capita pork consumption in in 2020 will continue to decline because of lower domestic production. Pork and related products make up 51% of Poland’s total meat consumption. Polish consumers tend to prefer pork over beef and poultry meat, the report says.
More from Farm Journal's PORK:
Global Disease Pressure Mounts, Opportunities Emerge for Pork Industry
Sample Tests Weak Positive for PED Virus in Alberta
From the White House: Missouri Pig Farmer Recaps USMCA Signing
