Brett Stuart will never forget that cold November morning. Sitting on his horse in the corral, he watched eight semi-trucks pull out of the driveway, hauling away everything his father had spent a lifetime building.
“There are days, even today, I look out the window and ask, ‘Did I make the right decision?’” Stuart says. “I understand the emotion of a family business built on blood, sweat and tears. I understand the desire to do whatever it takes to make that endure.”
Before Stuart became one of the world’s leading protein economists, all he ever wanted was to follow in his father’s footsteps as a cowboy running cattle on the Wyoming-Utah border. But when his father died of cancer at 57, Stuart sat at the kitchen table—armed with the fresh accounting degree his dad had insisted he earn—to run the numbers on buying the herd and the ranch.
The math was impossible.
Walking away from the family ranch gave Stuart an enduring empathy for agricultural producers facing impossible choices. It also launched him on an analytical career that ultimately led to the founding of Global AgriTrends.
Stuart knows what it feels like to face underwater balance sheets and volatile markets because he lived it.
“Agriculture is way more complex than people give it credit for,” he says. “I saw a real opportunity to go build something – to dig into the data and advise people who are too busy running daily operations to track global macro trends.”
With six months of savings and a wife who believed in the vision, Stuart set out on his own.
The Greatest Story Never Told
Decades into analyzing global protein markets, Stuart believes one of modern agriculture’s greatest triumphs remains largely untold: the evolution of the U.S. pork sector.
“It’s absolutely extraordinary what the U.S. pork industry has accomplished in terms of commercializing productivity and fine-tuning agriculture,” Stuart says. “This is a world-class industry. Look at how we manage barn production, feed and nutrition—not to mention the support industries like pharmaceuticals, feed science and ag banking. There’s no other country in the world with that kind of infrastructure.”
Yet despite that efficiency, producers are struggling. A disappointing summer has rolled into a difficult winter margin squeeze. While balance sheets remain generally sound, operations are running in the red.
“The last eight weeks’ production is 2.5% below a year ago,” Stuart notes. “We’re sitting here with a cutout at five-year lows for this time of year, so there are definitely headwinds.”
He expects the margin pressure to linger through mid-year.
“On the hog production side, margins are going to be strained. The good news is our debt-to-equity ratio across the industry is as solid as it’s been in years, but producing at a loss is never sustainable,” he says. “Over the winter, losses will accrue depending on hedge positions. But the silver lining is that low prices ultimately cure low prices.”
Contracted margins will eventually curb supply—a shift already hinted at in the most recent USDA Hogs and Pigs report.
“Typically, after spending six to nine months underwater, supply tightens, setting up profitability on the other side,” Stuart says. “Once we get into next summer, we can re-evaluate inventories and hopefully see tighter supplies create a much better outlook.”
Why the World Is Oversupplied
Trade isn’t just about domestic supply and demand; it’s a global game of dominoes, he says. From Spain’s African swine fever fallout to heavy sow liquidation across mainland China, Stuart points out that the international market feels heavy—and where U.S. pork holds an unshakable advantage.
“We’re in a spot right now where the whole world’s a little bit oversupplied,” Stuart says. “That’s good news for the U.S. Our key market is Mexico. We don’t really compete much with Brazil in Mexico. They have a quota. We don’t compete with Europe in Mexico. Our No. 1 market is still our market, though we can’t take that for granted forever.”
The Meat Case Dilemma
Beyond trade, domestic demand faces an intriguing psychological divide at retail.
Why will a shopper happily pay $20 a pound for a beef ribeye, yet hesitate over a nutrient-dense, high-quality pork loin sitting 20 feet away for $3.50 a pound?
“When I look at global economies, the U.S. pork industry sits right in the middle of the most lucrative consumer base on earth,” Stuart says. “We have more people willing to spend discretionary income on food than anywhere else. There’s huge opportunity here, but capturing it will require outside-the-box innovation.”
Pork remains an exceptional consumer value, but Stuart points to beef’s quality transformation—where 80% to 85% of cattle now grade Choice or Prime—as a blueprint for premiumization.
“Look at a Choice ribeye versus a pork loin; there is virtually zero marbling in modern commercial loin,” Stuart says. “So, what is the mechanism to produce a differentiated pork product that actually returns a premium back to the producer?”
While solving that puzzle is complex, Stuart is convinced the industry has the talent and ingenuity to tackle it.
“I’m not doom and gloom,” Stuart emphasizes. “People are going to keep eating, and pork is an incredible protein. Big opportunities lie ahead. We just have to remain disciplined with supply while we innovate.”
Want to hear more of Brett Stuart’s incredible story?
Tune into the latest episode of The PORK Podcast as host Jennifer Shike sits down with Brett Stuart to discuss the hard math of production agriculture, advice for producers facing tough operational calls, and why protecting consumer choice and interstate commerce matters for the entire food chain.
👉 Listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or watch on Farm Journal’s YouTube channel.
