After one of the driest stretches in recent memory, parts of Colorado finally caught a meaningful shot of moisture this week , and for many farmers and ranchers, it felt long overdue.
A spring snowstorm dropped more than a half foot of snow across portions of eastern Colorado, bringing measurable relief to drought-stricken areas that have spent months watching systems miss them to the north or south.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, roughly five million Colorado residents remain in drought conditions, with drought coverage increasing nearly 8% from the previous week. But for producers who finally saw gauges fill and snow pile up, the storm offered something equally valuable: optimism.
Near Keenesburg, Colorado, farmer Mark Arnusch reported approximately six inches of snowfall after receiving about a half inch of rain before temperatures turned colder. By his measurement, it was the largest single storm event his farm has experienced in nearly 1,100 days.
That statistic alone underscores how unusual the recent dryness has been across the western Plains.
The Winter That Wasn’t Across the West and Plains
Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, based in Colorado, says many areas have endured a winter that barely resembled winter at all.
“We’ve only had about 12 minutes of winter this year,” Bledsoe says after measuring 7.5 inches of snow at his home south of Denver in Castle Rock.
Bledsoe says he spoke with Arnish about the timing of the storm and realized the last comparable moisture event occurred during another major climate transition.
“He was telling me the date that he last saw that moisture — May 12th, May 13th of 2023 — and ironically enough that was the last time we did this whole La Niña to El Niño switch,” Bledsoe says.
Now, Bledsoe says another atmospheric transition may be developing, one that could eventually favor better precipitation opportunities across the Plains.
Pattern Shift Could Bring Better Rain Chances to the Plains
Through mid-May, upper-level weather patterns still favor ridging in the West and troughing farther east, a setup that typically limits widespread moisture across the central United States.
“This has been kind of a more March-like pattern,” Bledsoe says. “But the precipitation anomalies associated with this pattern are not that conducive to moisture in the middle part of the country.”
In the short term, Bledsoe says many areas of the Plains could remain drier than average through at least the middle of May.
However, forecast models suggest a notable shift later in the month.
“We have upper-level ridging moving east over the middle part of the country and the Midwest and a trough of low pressure out along the California coast,” Bledsoe says. “This traditionally means more active weather coming back to the Plains.”
That evolving setup could increase thunderstorm activity and improve rainfall opportunities from the western Plains into parts of Texas.
“We are going to start to see the Plains wake up,” Bledsoe says. “Not only with better rain chances, but also more chances for severe thunderstorms during that period of time.”
Seasonal Models Lean Wetter for the Western Plains
While seasonal forecasts always carry uncertainty, several major long-range models are beginning to align around a similar signal: the western Plains may trend wetter this summer.
Bledsoe says the latest European seasonal model for June through August favors above-normal precipitation across the western High Plains, portions of the Intermountain West and parts of the Southeast.
“You can’t derive a ton from these models, but you can pick up some signals,” Bledsoe says.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble and Canadian seasonal guidance also point toward improved moisture potential farther west, without signaling widespread drought expansion across the middle of the country.
Bledsoe says historical analog years support the same general idea.
“If we do a little digging in terms of history and look at these analog years — 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991 and others, those precipitation anomalies also favor areas farther west,” he says.
That does not mean every region benefits equally.
Bledsoe says portions of central and southeast Texas could still trend drier, while some areas of the Midwest may continue to see uneven rainfall distribution.
Still, for producers in Colorado, western Kansas, eastern New Mexico and nearby areas, the recent storm may be an early indication that a more active moisture pattern is finally developing.
Relief Arrives at a Critical Time
The timing, though, matters.Many winter wheat acres across the western Plains entered spring under significant moisture stress, while ranchers have continued battling poor pasture conditions and limited stock water supplies.
One storm will not erase long-term drought concerns. Subsoil moisture deficits remain significant across many areas, and producers know meaningful recovery requires repeated events over time.
But after nearly three years without a storm of this magnitude in parts of eastern Colorado, the latest snowfall delivered a reminder of how quickly conditions can shift when atmospheric patterns cooperate.
“Some rain coming back to the Plains, especially the western Plains, would certainly be a good start,” Bledsoe says.
The next several weeks will determine whether this storm was simply an isolated event — or the first sign of a broader weather turnaround for the Plains.
