The U.S. pork market is currently sending mixed signals, offering producers opportunities for profit while simultaneously warning of significant headwinds. Five industry analysts suggest that the second half of the year will be defined by “discipline.” With the recent pseudorabies (PRV) detection serving as a wake-up call and USDA production forecasts hinting at a surge in tonnage, producers must navigate a landscape where high feed costs, labor shortages and trade vulnerabilities remain constant threats. Success will require more than just luck; it will require a sharp eye on the futures market and a commitment to safeguarding the industry’s global reputation, these experts say.
Here are five things to think about as you set out into second half of 2026.
1. Be ready for hog supplies to be on either side of even and what that may mean for hog prices.
“Many leading indicators are pointing to tighter supplies compared to a year ago,” says Lee Schulz, Ever.Ag Chief Economist. “Higher porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus positivity this year compared to 2025 point to higher pig death losses. The timing suggests an impact on hog slaughter supply during the summer and early fall.”
Schulz says this would align with the record or near record-high prices paid for weaned and feeder pigs this year. Still, several forecasts are still calling for larger production.
“The latest USDA forecast has a 0.9% rise in second quarter 2026 pork production compared to second quarter 2025, a 2.4% hike in third quarter production compared to 2025, and a 1.5% year over year increase in the fourth quarter,” he notes. “Sure, these are pork production forecasts and not hog slaughter projections, but hog weights have been up only 0.7% this year. Lean hog futures would also seemingly suggest larger supplies.”
2. It’s time to move forward on traceability initiatives.
“Let’s take the wake-up call from the PRV detection,” says Erin Borror, U.S. Meat Export Federation Vice President for Economic Analysis. “The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has been leading these efforts, and work is ongoing across the entire industry. But until enhanced traceability can be deployed, including through codification of U.S. SHIP and funding and related details in the U.S. Farm Bill, USDA will not reach pre-regionalization agreements with trading partners.”
Borror says preventing foreign animal disease remains essential, while also working to best prepare for the worst-case scenario. Staffing at USDA-APHIS is critically low, she points out, and needs to be highlighted as a priority for both safeguarding animal health and working with trading partners to minimize trade disruptions.
“Spain’s African swine fever (ASF) detection in November 2025 meant they lost roughly a third of their export markets, based on volume,” Borror says. “This outcome was disruptive but the majority of exports continued to flow, through many pre-regionalization agreements, including with top trading partners like China and Korea, and the Philippines also recently recognized and reopened to Spanish pork. The outcome would not be the same for the U.S., if heaven-forbid, a foreign animal disease was detected this year.”
3. Remember that profitability can change fast.
“The second half of the year is where cost control, risk management and operational discipline matter,” says Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender Farm Credit Services of America. “Hog weights have been running 1–2 lb. heavier than a year ago, which adds pork tonnage, and USDA expects 2026 production to be up from 2025. More pork is manageable when demand is strong, but it leaves less room for a demand hiccup.”
He encourages producers to watch feed costs, labor, health status, interest expense and packer margins.
“The market is giving producers opportunities, but it is not giving them a free pass,” Ford says. “Use futures and options when they make sense. It is important to pay attention to the overall drought situation knowing that during the planting season most areas in which I conduct business were in some level of drought. If the dry conditions continue to persist over the summer, new crop feed could cost drastically higher than what is being priced in today.”
4. Pay attention to demand risks.
“Cutout has failed to reach the levels previously expected (hoped for) mostly because processed items, such as bellies and hams, have struggled to get traction,” explains Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting. “This is not a supply issue, rather it reflects softer demand at food service. Sometimes a few well-timed adds can help fresh pork, they may also help retail bacon.”
Kalo says food service has a much longer lead time, so the demand slack will take time to fix.
“Eventually low prices fix low prices, and we still think consumers like and want to eat bacon,” he says. “But this was a reminder that sometimes producers focus too much on the supply side, mostly because it is in front of them, and do not pay as much attention to demand risks.”
5. Focus on cost control.
“Producers should remain focused on disciplined cost control and proactive risk management,” says Brian Earnest, lead economist-animal protein for CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division. “Market signals are becoming more complex. Listen to what the market is telling us.”
Meat marketing is leading into the theme that “protein is having a moment.” Now’s a good time to ask how the consumer is experiencing your product, he adds.
“What opportunities are arising that could help pork further differentiate from the old marketing campaign, and adjust to the new path?” Earnest says. “Is it learning about new genetics, nutrition, marketing or other opportunities?”
