Agricultural economists shared their forecast prices for the next several quarters following the Dec. 23 announcement of the Dec. 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.
Dale Durchholz of Grain Cycles used the CME Live Equivalent Index to quote his prices. He forecast:
• first quarter at $45 to $47 per cwt.
• second quarter at $51 to $55
• third quarter at $46 to $48
• fourth quarter at $44 to $49
Using the CME Equivalent Index, Bob Brown, an independent market analyst, quoted:
• first quarter at $64 per cwt.
• second quarter at $81
• third quarter at $86
• fourth quarter at $74
“My forecasts are up about $16 a cwt. from a year ago -- $11 of that is because packer margins will be down. Packer margins were pushed way out of whack and that really affected my hog prices. That will be a major story in 2021, in my mind, compared to 2020,” Brown said.
Altin Kalo, senior analyst for the Steiner Consulting Group, said he also used the CME Equivalent Index. He forecast:
• first quarter at $65 to $66 per cwt.
• second quarter at $78 to $80
• third quarter at $80 to $81
• fourth quarter at $66 to $68
For the next 12 to 18 months, Kalo expects a pretty good export outlook for U.S. pork exports.
“There’s a lot of money that’s sloshing around. When do we start to see some sort of inflationary pressure? A lot of that is going to be a function of when we see demand start to come back in,” Kalo said. “It’s anybody’s guess as to when things really start to kick in. But usually when that happens, you see things ramp up fairly quickly. So at least in our shop, we see the risk more to the upside.”
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