Despite waning export demand, strong markets helped start the summer, according to Rabobank’s Q3 Global Pork Quarterly Report.
“Hog supplies remain tight versus year-ago levels due to earlier production challenges, resulting in historically strong summer hog markets,” says Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank. “Strong hog prices, along with continued pressure on feed costs, are resulting in robust margins for many producers.”
But McCracken points out this has not spurred any meaningful expansion of the sow herd. The U.S. breeding herd inventories remained relatively flat through Q2 2025, totaling just under 6 million head, which is unchanged from year-ago levels. Farrowing intentions and record pigs saved per litter were in line with expectations, up 1.6% year over year.
“Productivity gains continue to offset limited herd growth,” McCracken says. “We expect a gradual increase in the sow herd and continued productivity gains, although disease losses may temper gains.”
Tight Supplies, New Highs
Tight supplies are driving hog markets to new highs, the report says, with negotiated hog prices firm at $110 per hundredweight, up 23% year over year.
“Packers responded to hog supply tightness by pulling slaughter forward, which drove down carcass weights,” McCracken adds. “More recently, the industry has moderated harvest schedules to recover margins, leading to a rebound in weights and downward pressure on hog prices.”
Pork Cutout Value Hits Seasonal Peak
Ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, pork prices surged. These prices were driven by sharp gains in belly (+64% year over year) and ham values (+30% year over year). The pork cutout averaged $120 cwt., up 19% from 2024 as tighter pork supplies due to lower slaughter rates and reduced cold storage inventories pushed product values higher, Rabobank reports.
“Seasonal grilling demand also played a role, supporting higher loin and ribs values,” McCracken says. “Additionally, record beef prices and elevated chicken prices boosted pork demand across both retain and food service channels.”
Exports Lag
U.S. pork export volumes fell 11% in volume to 215,882 metric tons, coming in -10% year-over-year in value.
“A steep drop in exports to China (-88% year over year) was the primary contributor to the decline, with additional pressure from reduced exports to the Philippines (-48% year over year), Canada (-10% year over year) and South Korea (-5% year over year),” Rabobank says. “Meanwhile, exports to Mexico rebounded (+7% year over year), and shipments to Colombia remained strong (+30% year over year).”
McCracken says pork imports also declined and were down 8% year over year. This was due to continued weakness in fresh pork imports from Canada, along with softer volumes from Denmark and the Netherlands.
