University of Missouri economist Scott Brown said he’ll be the first to admit he had a lot of scratches on his paper after the Sept. 24 announcement of the Sept. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in a teleconference funded by the Pork Checkoff.
Three agricultural economists shared their forecasted prices for the next several quarters.
Using the National Base 51-52% Lean Live Equivalent, Brown quoted:
• fourth quarter of 2021 at $57 per cwt.
• first quarter of 2022 at $56
• second quarter of 2022 at $64
• third quarter of 2022 at $67
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $52
John Nalivka, president of Sterling Marketing, used the Western Corn Belt Weighted Average plus $2 to take into account premiums to quote his prices. He forecast:
• fourth quarter of 2021 at $90 per cwt.
• first quarter of 2022 at $89
• second quarter of 2022 at $108
• third quarter of 2022 at $96
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $86
Len Steiner of Steiner Consulting Group said he used the CME One-Day Lean Hog Index. He forecast:
• fourth quarter of 2021 at $84 per cwt.
• first quarter of 2022 at $83
• second quarter of 2022 at $92
• third quarter of 2022 at $86
• fourth quarter of 2022 at $76
Steiner forecasts the 2022 annual average at $84.25 per cwt.
“I think what producers went through last year stays top of their mind,” Nalivka says. “I think there’s still a lot of caution, but I definitely would not discount that things would start to begin to pick up towards getting back into some expansion mode during the first half of next year.”
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