Despite temptations to panic, U.S. pork producers are handling the news better than some might expect of China slapping an additional 34% tariff on U.S. pork, bringing the total among to an 81% tariff on U.S. pork.
“At this point, I am not in panic mode,” says Chad Leman, an Illinois pig farmer. “As producers, we knew the tariffs were coming and we had time to get hedged up for the potential implications. It is going to be a bumpy ride in the near term, but I am willing to be optimistic yet on the eventual outcome.”
For Kevin Stuckey, an Ohio pig farmer, there are so many unknowns right now that it’s hard to know what to think about it.
“As pork producers, we’re used to cycles. You go through good years and bad years, and we have a lot of things thrown at us that are out of our control,” Stuckey says. “Ultimately, the president is doing what he thinks is going to be best for us in the long term, but we just don’t know yet. I think we have to trust the process and see how the process unfolds.”
But that’s not to say Stuckey isn’t concerned. China is a very important market to the U.S. Not only are they a major pork consumer, but they are a major player in the world, he adds.
“I think we all were expecting there to be issues with tariffs,” Stuckey says. “I don’t want to panic or jump to any conclusions too quickly, but there’s obviously reasons for concern.”
Iowa Pork Producers Association president Aaron Juergens says the tariff news has been disappointing to Iowa pork producers who rely on certainty and stability.
“More than 25% of U.S. pork production is exported to high-value markets around the world,” Juergens says. “Since Iowa supplies about one-third of the nation’s pork, market access is crucial to us and to our state’s economy. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins was in Iowa on Monday, and we urged her and the Trump Administration to support U.S. pork exports by negotiating new market access for U.S. pork, and the elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.”
How Will This Impact U.S. Pork?
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, and markets don’t like uncertainty,” says Altin Kalo, chief economist for Steiner Consulting Group. “That certainly has been reflected when you see futures trading like they’ve been.”
In his mind, the biggest impact from the tariff increases on pork up to this point is the potential for damaging the economy down the road.
“You can get into the politics of it, and certain people fall on either side as to how much it’s going to affect the economy and when, but that doesn’t matter,” Kalo says. “Right now, that’s what the market is afraid of, and that’s what it’s reacting to. If you’re a pork producer and you’re thinking about pork down the road, tariffs are part of it.”
History offers some perspective on demand during a recession, he says. In 2008-2009, the Great Recession struck. During this time, the demand index for pork, what consumers are willing to pay for a given amount of product, went down about 16% between 2007 and 2011.
“Is that going to be the same this time?” Kalo asks. “We don’t know. The economy is in a different spot now. Other things are playing out. But again, that fear is out there.”
More recently, consumers had more money in 2022, and the result was more dollars spent at retail, which tends to benefit pork. Between 2022 and 2024, pork demand went down about 11%, Kalo says.
“That’s been the reason why pork prices haven’t really seen a whole lot of support, even though the overall supply itself has been somewhat constrained,” he adds. “I think the demand side of it holds a lot of uncertainty and fear right now.”
What Can Producers Do?
In the short term, Kalo says he’s not sure there’s a lot that pork producers can do.
“You’ve got a farm to run, sow barns that you need to take care of and animals to feed,” he says. “Don’t overreact to these markets right away. I think there’s been some overreaction in terms of the futures. I don’t know that you want to chase the market down, but be realistic about the future and recognize we’re facing more headwinds.”
Leman says he will be focused on managing through the volatility.
“Many producers will use this opportunity to take profits on short positions, secure cheaper feedstuffs and set new targets for making sales,” Leman says.
For now, Kalo reminds producers that the U.S. economy is still in pretty good shape.
“Pork is still relatively inexpensive, and consumers are going to be looking for inexpensive proteins, especially going to the summer months,” he says.
Speaking of pork demand, Stuckey says he’s excited about the new “Taste What Pork Can Do” campaign.
“I love that the tagline is like a challenge,” he says. “I was at Pork Forum when they released the tagline, and the whole room was a little quiet taking it in at first. But as I sat there, it hit me that this is a challenge. Everybody should be challenged by this new slogan to see what pork can do for you and what you can do to get other people to embrace pork.”
Pork producers are motivated by challenges, Stuckey says.
“This is just a new chapter with the tariffs,” he says. “It’s one more challenge we’re going to find a way to overcome. We always do.”
However, Leman says it’s hard to know what a new week will bring. He says he reserves the right to change his mind about all of it.
Your next read: China Strikes Back: U.S. Beef Now Faces a 56% Tariff, Pork is 81%
