USDA’s Sept. 1 hog inventory came in just a tick under expectations, as did the number of market hogs. The breeding herd number was in line with the average pre-report guess. As a result, the report is mostly neutral as it pertains to market price action.
However, there are some interesting numbers in the market hog inventory categories. We suspected the recent surge in pork production was due to liquidation of sows, but with the inventory of heavyweight hogs (as of Sept. 1) up 5% from year-ago and the breeding herd steady with year-ago, that’s strong evidence sow liquidation wasn’t as heavy as believed. Looking forward, hog slaughter, barring heavy sow liquidation, should run close to year-ago levels into the first quarter of 2013.
Summer farrowings and fall/winter farrowing intentions signal hog producers will scale back pig production. But with farrowing house efficiency still climbing, even a 2% decline in farrowings could give us another steady pig crop in the quarter ahead.
Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report
| USDA
| Avg. trade guess
| Range
|
% of year-ago
| |||
All Hogs and Pigs | 100
| 100.7
| 99.0-101.7
|
Kept for breeding | 100
| 99.9
| 98.5-100.8
|
Kept for marketing | 100
| 100.8
| 99.0-101.9
|
June-Aug pig crop | 100
| 100.2
| 99.8-100.9
|
June-Aug pigs per litter | 101
| 100.9
| 100.5-101.4
|
June-Aug farrowings | 99
| 99.2
| 98.7-100.1
|
Sept-Nov farrowing int. | 97
| 98.7
| 97.6-99.7
|
Dec-Feb farrowing int. | 99
| 98.4
| 97.3-100.3
|
Hogs under 50 lbs. | 99
| 99.9
| 99.0-101.0
|
Hogs 50 to 119 lbs. | 99
| 100.1
| 98.0-101.8
|
Hogs 120-179 | 101
| 100.8
| 99.0-102.9
|
Hogs 180 and over | 105
| 102.6
| 100.5-104.9
|
