The U.S. hog inventory as of March 1 came in slightly larger than expected, although most of the categories were close to the average pre- report guesses. The outliers were spring and summer farrowing intentions. The breakdown of market hogs indicates slaughter will run 1% to 2% above year-ago through summer. That is very close to expectations.
The only “confusing” part of the report is the 3% increase in the Dec.- Feb. pig crop that translated into only a 2% increase in the number of hogs weighing less than 120 pounds. That may be an indication of increased death loss due to PRRS in northern areas of the Corn Belt.
Market reaction should be relatively limited. We see the report data as mildly negative for summer-month hog futures, but slightly positive for far-deferred months.
Quarterly H&P Report Expectations
| USDA
| Avg. trade guess
| Range
|
% of year-ago | |||
All Hogs and Pigs | 102
| 101.7
| 101.4-102.3
|
Kept for breeding | 101
| 100.3
| 99.9-100.7
|
Kept for marketing | 102
| 101.8
| 101.5-102.5
|
Dec- Feb pig crop | 103
| 102.4
| 102.0-103.0
|
Dec-Feb pigs per litter | 102
| 101.7
| 101.2-102.0
|
Dec-Feb farrowings | 101
| 100.7
| 100.4-101.0
|
Mar-May farrowing int. | 99 | 100.2
| 99.4-101.0
|
June-Aug farrowing int. | 98
| 100.3
| 99.5-101.0
|
Hogs under 60 lbs. | 102
| 102.1
| 101.4-103.0
|
Hogs 60 to 119 lbs. | 102
| 101.9
| 101.5-102.3
|
Hogs 120-179 | 102
| 101.9
| 101.4-103.0
|
Hogs 180 and over | 101
| 101.5
| 101.0-102.1
|
