Is There Room at the Table for Meat and Alternative Proteins?

By Anna Dilger, University of Illinois

Have you seen the headlines that animal agriculture is going away and soon we will all be eating plant-based protein patties and cell-cultured meat nuggets? Whether it is questioning the environmental impact of animal agriculture or implying that people just won’t want to eat meat, there are suggestions that fewer animals will be raised for food production in the near future. Some even think the time of animal agriculture is at an end. 

But is that the truth? 

Not a New Concept
For those involved in agriculture, the need for an increased amount of food to feed the growing population is not a new concept. Through genetic selection and technological advancements, we have increased the food supply time and again.

But, looming in the future is a world with 9.5-10 billion people. To feed this population, food production will need to increase by 50, 60, maybe even 100%. This isn’t just an increase in the quantity of food or even just the calories produced. We will need to produce more protein in the future to meet this growing need.  

Currently, the global protein market is dominated by animal-sourced protein and totals about $2 trillion in revenue annually. By 2050, the market for all sources of protein is expected to grow to $3-$4 trillion. Will the alternative protein markets—the plant-based burgers and sausages, and maybe even cultured meat—grow between now and 2050? Absolutely. 

A Bigger Pie
In a recent talk at the Reciprocal Meats Conference, Jack Bobo, who spent over a decade with the U.S. State Department working on food policy, suggested that alternative proteins might grow to between 10% to 12% of the total protein market as soon as 2030. But during that same time, animal protein production will also increase. 

In other words, the total protein market is growing larger. While plant-based or other alternative proteins will have a larger ‘slice of the pie,’ the pie itself is getting bigger. The world will be consuming both more alternative proteins in the future and more animal protein. 

Until A Plant Tastes Like Bacon
This view was a challenge to my own thinking. Instead of viewing plant-based meat alternatives as a threat to animal agriculture, we should view them as another option for consumers. Some people may choose to include them in their diets. Others will not. Instead of thinking about these non-meat protein foods as replacing traditional animal-based proteins, I am trying to see them as a complement to our animal-source foods.

We can approach these foods as an “and” and not an “or” in global diets. We will need more protein in the future, and so we must think more holistically about all possible sources of proteins and when and how to use them. 

I will not deny that there are threats to animal agriculture. For the U.S. pork industry, I worry about animal diseases, the health of our rural communities, contentious ballot initiatives, and the disconnect between consumers and producers. These issues will challenge producers to adapt as they also increase production to meet the growing need for protein. 

However, for now, I am choosing not to worry about alternative proteins. There is room at the table for all kinds of protein. And frankly, until someone can make a plant taste like bacon, I think we will be okay. 

Dr. Dilger is an associate professor of meat science at the University of Illinois. 

Read more from Anna Dilger.