By all traditional metrics, the U.S. pork market has been surprisingly strong in 2026, defying expectations with an “orderly” supply chain and export values that are among the highest on record, experts say. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and the persistent threat of disease, domestic consumption has held firm, and the export engine has outpaced even the USDA’s most optimistic projections. However, pseudorabies-related trade restrictions were a sobering reminder that profitability is often dictated by factors beyond producers’ control.
Five economists share their biggest surprises so far in 2026. They include:
- Erin Borror, U.S. Meat Export Federation vice president for economic analysis
- Brian Earnest, lead economist-animal protein for CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division
- Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender at Farm Credit Services of America
- Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting
- Lee Schulz, Ever.Ag chief economist
Borror: The biggest surprise for me was the detection of pseudorabies (PRV) in Iowa, announced by USDA on April 30, and the loss of access for offal and other non-muscle cut exports to Mexico and Colombia. Thankfully this is not an actual animal health event, but the industry still lost market access as a result, and the situation should be used as a learning opportunity.
Mexico is the second-largest destination for U.S. pork variety meat exports, after only China. Mexico is also the dominant customer for fresh products like skins, trucked to Mexico daily, and these products along with fat, feet and most all non-muscle cuts have been halted since May 1. In 2025, U.S. pork variety meat exports to Mexico totaled $325 million and 184,000 metric tons. In the first four months of 2026, exports were valued at $104 million, totaling 59,000 metric tons. Mexico is the dominant customer for chilled U.S. pork variety meats valued at $39 million in Jan-April. Frozen offal exports to Mexico were valued at $30 million, including items like tongues, feet and hearts. Stomachs, intestines, etc. were valued at $31 million in Jan-April. Products that are normally shipped fresh are being frozen, adding costs and inventory is piling up; in other cases some items are being rendered. For five weeks there was uncertainty about which products, from which states, would be accepted by Mexico, and from which production dates, once the trade resumed. Some exports were finally able to resume on June 9, but not from hogs from farms in the states of Iowa or Texas, and not from slaughter or processing establishments in those states.
USMEF continues to work closely with USDA to convey the needs of the exporters, hoping to minimize the gaps. Colombia’s restrictions were finally formalized on May 19, also suspending offal imports and importantly impacting products like jowls and further processed pork sausages and salami. The restrictions have not been transparent, and USMEF-Colombia continues to work with the trade to best understand the nuance. USDA presence in these countries, thus at Post in Mexico City and Bogota is also essential for working through and eventually resolving these market access barriers.
Earnest: Demand strength has been a notable surprise. Despite broader macroeconomic headwinds, both domestic and export consumption have held up better than expected. At the same time, the supply side has remained more robust than anticipated. Even with lower year-over-year slaughter at times, higher carcass weights have sustained or increased total pork production. This combination has helped keep product available and limited upside in prices.
Ford: The biggest surprise has been how steady and orderly the market has been. A lot of the supply numbers have come in very close to expectations. Hog slaughter since March has been almost exactly in line with what USDA’s March Hogs and Pigs report suggested, and sow slaughter has been low so far in 2026. The other surprise is the strength of exports. March pork exports were up 6% year over year at 285,567 metric tons, the largest March volume in five years and the third largest on record. Export value was $803.2 million, the second highest on record. That kind of export support has helped keep the market constructive.
Kalo: There is not one big surprise, but a few small surprises. Pork supply in the spring was not down as much as people feared, which puts in perspective some of the talk and anecdotal evidence about disease losses. Sharply higher beef prices were also expected to provide a lift for pork prices, especially in Q2. For some items like spareribs, maybe that was the case. But for pork chops the impact was limited. Ground beef prices at retail are now 50% higher than they were a year ago and yet that has done little to get consumers to want to eat more pork chops.
Schulz: U.S. pork export strength. The latest official export numbers are for April and through the first four months of 2026, U.S. pork exports are up 3.8% by volume over the first four months of 2025. Total dollars are up almost 5%. So, it’s not just that more volume has been exported at a lower price. Total value is up. This export strength has outpaced many projections. Just back in December 2025, a mere six months ago, USDA was projecting first quarter 2026 export volume to be down slightly compared to first quarter of 2025. At that time, USDA had export volume for all of 2026 up only 0.7%. Fast forward six months and USDA is forecasting that U.S. pork exports grow by 4.0% in 2026 compared to 2025. Export dollars growing at a similar clip, or more, would be a major boost for the U.S. pork market.
