How can producers win in 2026? In a hog market where “home runs” are rare, winning in 2026 requires a different kind of strategy. Industry experts say this year’s most successful producers aren’t the ones swinging for the fences. Here are five ways your operation can stack up wins in the second half of the year.
1. Be patient.
“The Milwaukee Brewers, my home state team and baseball club the Schulz family is more fanatics than fans about, have ranked dead last or near the bottom in the Major League in home runs this year,” says Lee Schulz, Ever.Ag chief economist. “Yet, their offense has been a consistent force thanks to hitters getting on base, getting in scoring position, and being batted in.”
Schulz says this seems like a microcosm of the hog market this year. Prices have been consistent with year-ago levels, not rising by more than $5 per cwt compared to the same week a year ago and only falling by more than $5 per cwt for one comparable week so far this year.
“With where prices have been at, there haven’t been a lot of home runs hit in marketing hogs in 2026, but there also haven’t been a lot of strike outs either,” he points out. “Singles and doubles add up in baseball and in managing hog price risk which can lead to a lot of wins all around. Success this year in the hog market may be a patient, steady approach but staying in position to participate to the upside, or hit a home run, if the opportunity presents itself.”
2. Be vigilant.
“Continue to be vigilant and do not let foreign animal disease into the U.S.,” urges Erin Borror, U.S. Meat Export Federation vice president for economic analysis. “Now is the time for U.S. pork- relatively limited global pork supplies (outside China), tight global beef supplies, a somewhat insulated Western Hemisphere with continued demand growth, and the possibility for additional market access opportunities on the horizon.”
3. Know your true breakeven.
“I sound like a broken record here, but know your true breakeven,” says Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender Farm Credit Services of America. “It’s not about the industry average, it’s about knowing your number. Feed, labor, mortality, interest, facility cost and marketing all need to be measured honestly.”
Then, protect profitable margins when they appear. Ford says this does not mean pricing everything at once, but it does mean having a plan before emotion takes over. Focus on production basics: pigs weaned per sow, mortality, feed conversion, weights, health status and labor execution.
“In a year like 2026, the best operators may not be the ones who guess the market perfectly, they’ll be the ones who convert opportunity into margin,” Ford says. “My outlook is positive, but not careless. The market is giving pork producers a chance to make money in 2026, but success will come down to discipline, managing costs, protecting margins and staying ready for volatility.”
4. Be consistent.
“It is something I have preached forever and will continue to do so: Have a consistent risk management program in place,” says Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting. “Known and unknown unknowns are always lurking. Producers should not be in the speculation business – they should be focusing their energies on defending their margins and be in for the long haul.”
5. Be efficient.
“Operational efficiency and adaptability will be key differentiators,” says Brian Earnest, lead economist-animal protein for CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division.
By closely managing feed inputs, including potential disruptions to additives, weights and cost structure, producers can have an outsized impact in a market where productivity is driving supply.
“Producer margins appear in good shape, but not as good as last year,” Earnest says. “A disciplined approach to risk management on both inputs and market exposure will position producers to navigate volatility while capturing opportunities as they arise. For example, we see some upside risk in feed prices due to weather, high fertilizer prices and potentially larger purchases from China.”
