As former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously said, “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
The “Known Unknowns": Factors Clouding the 2026 Forecast
One of the “known unknowns” impacting the pork outlook is the degree to which disease is impacting producers, says Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting.
“There is a lot of talk, anecdotal evidence abounds, and even some reports that look to measure the impact, but ultimately the only way we find out is when matching slaughter numbers with the known breeding stock,” Kalo says. “We also don’t know how diseases that are not on our radar screen may impact producers.”
For Erin Borror, U.S. Meat Export Federation vice president for economic analysis, many of the unknowns that come immediately to her mind are bigger picture trade factors including USMCA renewal, Mexico’s AD/CVD case against U.S. hams and shoulders and finalization and implementation of the Agreements on Reciprocal Trade, and the commercialization of the PRRS-Resistant Pig, including beyond the U.S.
Brian Earnest, lead economist-animal protein for CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division, agrees that global trade and export demand remain the most important swing factors, particularly given pork’s reliance on international markets. A key question on his mind is how long productivity gains can offset smaller slaughter numbers.
Cost volatility is another unknown, adds Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender Farm Credit Services of America. The uncertainty of feed, fuel and packaging costs could pressure margins in the second half of 2026, even while pork’s affordability supports demand.
Lee Schulz, Ever.Ag chief economist says the cost of living continues to be an immediate and pressing concern for consumers with high gasoline prices and other essentials eroding finances.
“Consumer income is a demand driver for any good, including pork,” Schulz says. “Knowing income elasticity of demand helps analysts forecast how much consumption may change when income changes. Data suggests U.S. income elasticity of demand for pork is 0.3 on average which puts pork in the necessity classification. This means that a 1% change in consumer income will push quantity of pork demanded by a smaller 0.3% in the same direction. Any continuation of the downturn in real disposable personal income experienced in recent months would point to lower quantities of pork demanded.”
While other factors support pork demand now like prices of substitutes and consumer tastes and preferences, he says the income effect is real.
The 2026 Forecast: A Road Map to Profitability
Taking these knowns and unknowns into consideration, these five economists share their updated pork outlook for 2026.
Borror: 2026 holds opportunities for pork globally, and U.S. pork exports are on a record pace, accounting for 30.7% of production when including variety meats, and equating to $67 per head slaughtered. But hog prices have converged for the top three suppliers, China, EU and U.S., and this is not exactly a bullish signal. It indicates oversupply in China and a challenging situation in EU, where historically small production isn’t enough to offset the fact that the largest EU producer and exporter – Spain – has ASF, and thus further rebalancing is underway. For U.S., prices are normal to strong, reflecting disciplined production growth, and the U.S. is positioned to capture more global demand. Hog prices are increasing in some major import countries, including Japan, Korea and Mexico- strong prices indicate limited domestic availability and continued growth in import demand. This is against the backdrop of high global beef prices, so in the red meat space, pork is well-positioned to meet consumer demand.
Finally, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises costs for consumers globally, and Asia is especially impacted due to their high reliance on energy which passes through the Strait. U.S. pork export growth has been led by Latin America, and the Western Hemisphere is less impacted by war in Iran, due to energy production and exports across the Americas. Since 2018, the growth in pork exports has also come from the Americas, from Brazil (from which exports grew by 770,000 metric tons), the U.S. (from which exports grew by 420,000 mt) and Canada (growth of 60,000 mt), and more than offsetting the decline from the EU (down 520,000 mt). The U.S. is the largest pork exporter in the world, surpassing EU, and Brazil is third, surpassing Canada (when variety meats are excluded).
Earnest: The outlook for the U.S. pork sector in 2026 is cautiously optimistic. Production remains relatively ample, but demand, particularly in export markets, has shown resilience. Notably, recent data highlights how productivity gains are shaping supply. Despite year-over-year declines in hog slaughter, pork production has continued to increase, with April reaching a record high. Heavier carcass weights and improved efficiencies are allowing production to grow even as herd dynamics tighten, suggesting the market is gradually moving toward a better balance. With the new domestic marketing campaign in place and record high beef prices, pork has never been better positioned to represent both a quality red-meat experience and value at the same time.
Ford: I’m cautiously optimistic. The industry is not without risk, but 2026 looks like a year where disciplined producers can make money. USDA is projecting U.S. pork production at 28.001 billion lb., up 1.5% from 2025, with national producer-sold hog prices averaging about $68.38/cwt, in line with 2025. Exports are also expected to be strong, with USDA projecting 7.23 billion lb., up approximately 3.8% from 2025. Production continues to be the largest unknown factor to how much the Q4 25 and Q1 26 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreaks have impacted marketings and weights going into the summer months.
The key is that demand has held together better than many expected. Beef remains expensive, which helps pork compete at retail and food service. Export demand, especially Mexico, Central America, the Dominican Republic, Japan and parts of Asia, has been a major bright spot. March pork exports were among the largest on record, and first-quarter export value ran 3% above last year.
Kalo: I expect modest increase in pork production this year, up 1.2% vs. a year ago while per capita availability/consumption is expected to be up only 0.6%. Our current projection is for hogs values (CME index) to average around $92/cwt. for the year, a bit lower than a year ago but still a fairly profitable year, especially for those that were able to hedge earlier in the year.
Schulz: The outlook for farrow-to-finish returns, a barometer for pork producer profitability, is for an annual average profit of $7 per head in 2026. Perspective is important here. Yes, this forward profit curve is about one-third of what it was projected to be back in January and February. Yet, this level of return would still be the ninth highest annual average in the last 20 years and the 26th highest in the last 53 years. We are at about the long-run average return in the industry. Farrow-to-finish costs on the other hand are projected to be the fourth highest ever in 2026.
While “known unknowns” like disease pressure and shifting trade policies remain ever-present, these experts say the U.S. industry’s ability to capture global market share—combined with pork’s favorable price point against beef—suggests a window of opportunity.
