The outlook for global meat trade remains relatively unchanged from the April forecast in the July USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report. The beef and chicken meat exports are not significantly revised while pork is raised 2% from the last forecast to 10.8 million tons as stronger shipments from the U.S. and Brazil more than offset declines from Canada, UK and EU.
Reduced EU pork supplies provide opportunities for the U.S. and Brazil to gain market share in several Asia markets including South Korea and the Philippines. Strong demand from China has benefited most major pork exporters year to date.
The report says global pork production for 2023 is virtually unchanged from the April forecast at 114.8 million tons. Increases in the production forecast for China, Canada and Brazil offset declines in EU, Japan, the Philippines and Mexico.
“Despite mostly negative margins industry-wide, China production is higher on greater than previously expected slaughter as producers seek to reduce herds and maintain cash flow. EU production continues to wane due to pressure from environmental regulation, weaker consumption, and relatively elevated feed costs. Philippines pork production is lowered 3% due to the expansion of African swine fever in key production regions,” USDA said in the report.
Brazil Makes Export Gains
Brazil continues to make export gains and set new records for beef, pork and chicken meat. Brazil beef exports are revised 1% higher to 3.1 million tons on greater production and firm China demand. Brazil cattle prices have declined significantly compared to main competitors – Uruguay and Argentina – and lower beef prices support shipments to Southeast Asia, South America, and Middle East markets.
Brazil chicken meat exports are revised 2% higher to 4.8 million tons on firm shipments to Asia, the Middle East, and smaller developing markets. As of July 12, Brazil remains free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial operations and does not face restrictions as key competitors do, the report says.
Brazil pork exports are revised 8% higher to 1.5 million tons on strong exports to most Asia markets, including particularly robust shipments to China and Hong Kong. Declining feed prices in Brazil are anticipated to further incentivize production and bolster price competitiveness.
