Will BSE in Brazil Impact the Global Meat Industry?
When I heard the news about the two cases of atypical Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in milk cows sent to a slaughterhouse in the State of Minas Gerais in Brazil, my heart sank. Over the years, we’ve made some good friends in the Brazilian beef industry. The thought of more stress on top of the stress I know they are feeling right now because of the pandemic is a real concern. Brazil is no longer a place on a map to me, it’s where good friends are trying to do what we’re trying to do every day – survive a crazy period in history and make a living in animal agriculture.
I also couldn’t help but wonder if this would be another blow to the global meat industry? How would it impact the pork market?
Osler Desouzart, managing director of OD Consulting in Barueri in Brazil, says he does not expect a major impact on the world markets for a lack of better alternatives and a world shortage of live cattle affecting most of the beef-producing countries.
“The production and exports are highly concentrated in a few countries,” Desouzart says.
The 15 largest beef producing and exporting countries, average quantity produced in the period 2018-20, with preliminary 2020 data. Source: OD Consulting
The 15 largest beef producing and exporting countries, average quantity exported in the period 2018-20, with preliminary 2020 data. Source: OD Consulting
“Non-protectionist trade is commanded by data and facts," he says. "Probably the state of Minas Gerais will suffer restrictions for the coming six months and realistically speaking, a suspension of exports to China is convenient at the moment to that country which is the world's second major importer of beef.”
He says the question is how long will Asia afford to make restrictions to beef imports when there is a shortage of pork? A shortage of pork in Asia, that benefits beef and poultry.
“I cannot detect how two episodes of atypical BSE in old cows would jeopardize the present world market of meats,” Desouzart says. “There are no dilettantes among the producers, exporters and importers. They all know how to add 2+2 and find as a result something between 3 and 5.”
The same holds true for the U.S., European Union, Canada, Brazil and other major pork exporters, he says.
“The rising sun of pork markets comes from Asia,” Desouzart says. “So let’s get back to basics: Do what the markets want and not what is convenient to you. Adapt or follow the dinosaurs.”
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