Pork producers are choosing a “cautious yet strategic approach to expansion as they navigate stabilizing profitability and a promising demand outlook” for 2025, according to a recent RaboResearch report. Although production costs are expected to decline, uncertainties in animal health and global trade remain.
Producers are prioritizing productivity, cost efficiency, and adapting to changing consumer needs, RaboResearch says. Here are four key points from the latest report.
1. Modest production growth expected in 2025
Despite positive profits in 2024, herd expansion remains slow, with slight production increases in China, Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile, the global industry is seeing decreases in the EU and the US. Sustained profitability will be crucial for attracting investment in 2025.
Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch, says favorable production conditions are anticipated.
“Manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health are expected to support stable global pork supply, which is forecast to grow by less than 1% this year. Regional supply and demand balances vary, with sufficient supply in the US, China, and Brazil, and tighter supply in the EU, Japan, and the Philippines,” the report says.
2. Competitive prices boost pork consumption
It’s important to note that pork prices underperformed in 2024 compared to other meats, with prices below 2023 levels. However, the authors of the report say this doesn’t mean demand was weak.
“Lower feed costs and enhanced productivity have made pork more competitive, a trend likely to continue in 2025,” Pan says. “Pork is well-positioned due to its reasonable pricing and availability, especially as beef prices remain high and poultry demand strong.”
She expects pork demand to rise in North America and Brazil, where beef supply is tight. Europe may experience seasonal price increases, while Asia sees price fluctuations, with downward pressure in China and South Korea, but strong prices in Japan and Southeast Asia, the report details.
3. Global trade faces high uncertainty
Global import trends in 2024 were mixed, the report says, with a decline in China and growth elsewhere. RaboResearch says it’s expected that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will directly impact trade flows in 2025.
“High tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada may lead to retaliatory measures affecting agricultural goods, including pork,” Pan says.
In addition, geopolitical factors like a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire add uncertainty to grain prices. This influences pork production costs. Disease outbreaks, such as the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Germany, further complicate the trade landscape, the report notes. Participants along the supply chain may increase their focus on risk mitigation in this volatile marketplace.
4. Technological innovation to address challenges
African swine fever and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome outbreaks continue to challenge production and exports in different parts of the world.
“Governments and the pork industry have been working on various solutions, including vaccination, animal health products and stringent biosecurity,” RaboResearch says.
Sustainability and animal welfare concerns are also driving the need for innovation. Investments in technology such as automation, digitalization, and artficial intelligence continue to increase. Many large-scale farms are already using sensors for disease diagnosis and monitoring. These technologies aim to enhance biosecurity, disease prevention, and productivity, positioning the industry for future growth, RaboResearch adds.
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