USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release the September 1 Hogs and Pigs report on Sept. 28. Prior to its release, industry analysts were surveyed on their expectations for the report. Analysts are expecting all hogs and pigs, as of September 1, to be down 0.2% to 1.9% from last year, reports the Daily Livestock Report.
Here’s a look at the pre-report estimates:
- The average pre-report estimate is expecting a decline of 0.7% to 73.6 million head, which would be the lowest since 2017. This would be a decline of almost 5 million head from the record September 1 level of 78.6 million head set in 2019.
- September 1 market hogs are expected to be even with last year or down 1.9% with an average pre-report estimate of down 0.6% to 67.6 million head, the lowest since 2017.
- The average pre-report estimates for market hogs under 50 lbs. and 50-119 lbs., are both expected to decline from last year by 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively.
- Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs. are expected to be even with a year ago while hogs weighing 180 lbs. and over are expected to increase 0.7%.
- Analysts are expecting hogs kept for breeding to be down about 1.5% to almost 6.1 million head, with a range of down 1.0% to down 1.7%.
- The June-to-August farrowings are expected to be lower by 2.4% to 3.9% with an average of down 3.2% to just under 3.0 million head.
- Last quarter (March-to-May) saw a 3.3% year-over -year jump in pigs per litter to 11.36. Analysts are expecting an increase in pigs per litter for the June-to-August period ranging from up 0.9% to as high as 3.2% with an average of down 1.9%, which would be 11.34 pigs per litter, the highest for the period and the second highest on record behind March-to-May 2023.
- Although pigs per litter is expected to increase, they are expected to be more than offset by the decline in farrowings leading to a decrease in the June-to-August pig crop. Pre-report estimates range from a decline of 0.8% to 2.1% with an average decrease of 1.3% to nearly 33.7 million head.
- Farrowing intentions for the September-to-November and December-to-February periods are both expected to be lower. September-to-November farrowing intentions are expected to be down 2.2% to 6.4% with an average of down 3.5% to just under 3.0 million head. Farrowing intentions for December-to-February are expected to be lower by 0.7% to 4.1% with the average estimate decline of 2.1% to over 2.8 million head. If pigs per litter does trend higher, it may be partially offset by lower farrowings, leading to lower pig crop and pig supplies in 2024.
Porkbusiness.com will provide an update on Thursday night after the report is released.
A Look Back at Previous Hogs & Pigs Reports:
Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Up Slightly, Farrowing Intentions Down 4%
USDA’s Hogs and Pigs Report is ‘Sharply Neutral,’ Flory Says
A Surprise in the December Hogs and Pigs Report
Bullish Hogs and Pigs Report: Producers Are Keeping Supply in Check
