COVID-19 staffing issues at pork processing facilities and trucking challenges have limited slaughter numbers. John Payne, author of Swine Times, shared his view on the market with AgDay TV’s host Clinton Griffiths.
He thinks the slaughter numbers will begin to pick up soon as case numbers drop.
“I think there could be a rush of demand in the short run, just to slaughter. If you look at the cut-outs on both sides, they’re screaming. Bellies are up again today,” Payne said.
He’s pretty optimistic about the lean hog market going forward in 2022.
“I do look at where we are relative to a year ago, and we’re well below prices that I think we could potentially see given the cut-out prices,” Payne said. “When you just see the shelves are a little less empty and prices are a little higher, you wonder, ‘OK, well, we should see more on the shelves if they’re moving at these prices.’ If this is true supply chain, then that will catch up.”
He admits it’s easy to get into a mode in the first and early second quarter to want to be bullish, especially on summer hogs.
“But you don’t want to get yourself too over your skis on a short position,” Payne said. “China
growing at 4% year over year is a problem. And if China’s herd is large, and we’ve heard that it’s actually growing back to where it was pre-pandemic and really the original pandemic, ASF. Do they need pork exports?”
In the near term, he thinks the pork industry will see some pretty good action given the product markets.
More from Farm Journal’s PORK:
5 Pork Industry Opportunities: Focus on Production Efficiency
Record Year for Pork Exports to Mexico, Expert Shares Why
Iowa Pork Producers Pass State Resolutions on Transportation, Swine Health
