It was once written that there is a season for everything; a time to plant and a time to harvest, a time to break down and a time to build up. As we’ve entered 2026, that question naturally returns: What season are we entering?
After a profitable 2025 for many U.S. swine producers, it’s worth asking whether that momentum can continue and how best to respond if it does.
Last year’s profitability boiled down to two major factors: strong pig prices and relatively low feed costs. Domestic demand held firm, bolstered by high prices in competing proteins like beef, and while exports to Mexico dipped slightly, the long‑term upward trend in demand for U.S. pork will likely continue. With healthy domestic consumption and steady international interest, pig prices look positioned to remain stable through 2026, assuming no unexpected surge in national sow inventory.
Feed costs, however, introduce more uncertainty.
China’s pledge to purchase large volumes of soybeans has raised concerns about upward pressure on prices, but follow‑through on those commitments has been inconsistent at the time of writing. Many analysts see the pledge as part of a temporary cooling in U.S.-China trade tensions rather than a guaranteed market driver.
Meanwhile, Brazil is anticipating a record soybean harvest. If China favors U.S. beans, Brazil’s supply must shift elsewhere in the global market, driving prices down; if China buys Brazilian, then nothing has changed. Either way, it’s difficult to envision a significant global price spike without an increase in demand or a decrease in supply.
So, barring major surprises — and agriculture always leaves room for them — 2026 is shaping up to be another profitable year for producers. If that holds true, this becomes a season of preparation rather than expansion.
With capital costs still elevated and global economic signals mixed, jumping into major projects early carries risk. A more resilient approach may be to strengthen your financial footing and invest in herd health.
Interest‑rate forecasts suggest a continuing downward trend, but at a slower pace as inflation cools. If rates fall over the course of the year, expansion becomes less costly later on. Producers who use 2026 profits to pay down older, higher‑interest debt will be in a stronger, safer position when the time is right to expand.
Farm held debts have steadily been increasing over the past several years, though at a slower pace. While it may not be the most glamorous strategy, decreasing debt burdens is a prudent one that enables long‑term flexibility.
Herd health remains the other strategic priority. Diseases like porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), influenza and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) are constant threats; with the recent African swine fever (ASF) detection in Spain, we are reminded that vigilance is more important than ever.
Profitable years create opportunity, but also greater opportunity cost if disease strikes. Enhancing biosecurity, especially in finishing sites, can pay dividends not only by protecting margins but by preventing the regret that comes from being caught off‑guard, especially when prices eventually sour and disease becomes unaffordable.
There truly is a season for all things. If 2026 proves to be a profitable one, let’s use it wisely, strengthening our operations, protecting our herds and preparing strategically for whatever the next season brings.
Lance Mulberry is an economist with KnowledgeVentures LLC. He consults with producers, processors, pharmaceutical companies, genetics firms, nutrition and technology providers throughout the global pork chain. The focus of his consultation is driving client innovation and optimization in precision agricultural processes through bio-economic modeling.
