USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report on Friday, March 28, at 2:00 pm, CT. Based on pre-report expectations, traders look for the report to reflect the PEDV outbreak, as it reflects expectations that near-term marketings (based on hog weight breakdowns) to be around 4% to 5% lower than year-ago levels and for a big marketing hole to develop this fall. But it expectations are realized, it appears producers are doing all they can to hold onto their breeding herd, with Kept for Breeding expected very close to year-ago levels, as well as farrowing intentions.
Following are pre-report expectations (as percent of year-ago):
Quarterly H&P Report Expectations
| Avg. trade guess
| Range
|
| ||
All Hogs and Pigs | 94.5
| 92.0-97.1
|
Kept for breeding | 99.6
| 98.9-100.7
|
Kept for marketing | 94.0
| 91.2-96.9
|
Dec.-Feb. pig crop | 96.5
| 90.8-101.4
|
Dec.-Feb. pigs per litter | 96.7
| 92.9-99.8
|
Dec.-Feb. farrowings | 100.0
| 97.8-101.3
|
Mar.-May farrowing int. | 100.8
| 99.4-102.0
|
June-Aug. farrowing int. | 101.2
| 99.7-102.0
|
Hogs under 50 lbs. | 93.0
| 87.7-98.9
|
Hogs 50 to 119 lbs. | 94.1
| 91.0-97.8
|
Hogs 120 to 179 lbs. | 94.3
| 92.3-98.1
|
Hogs 180 and over | 95.4
| 93.9-97.3
|
* Expectations compiled by Thomson Reuters.
