Traders did a fairly good job pegging the report, with most of the categories coming within the pre-report guess ranges. The “misses,” however, were on the top side of the ranges, giving the data a mildly negative tone.
Quarterly H&P Report
| USDA
| Avg. trade guess
| Range
|
% of year-ago | |||
All Hogs and Pigs | 101
| 100.7
| 100.3-101.6
|
Kept for breeding | 100
| 100.3
| 99.7-101.2
|
Kept for marketing | 102
| 100.8
| 100.3-101.7
|
Dec-Feb pig crop | 102
| 101.2
| 100.6-101.7
|
Dec-Feb pigs per litter | 101
| 101.1
| 100.6-101.5
|
Dec-Feb farrowings | 101
| 100.1
| 99.7-100.3 |
Mar-May farrowing int. | 99 | 98.7 | 97.9-99.8
|
Jun-Aug farrowing int. | 99
| 100.9
| 98.9-101.6
|
Hogs under 50 lbs. | 101
| 100.9
| 100.4-101.5
|
Hogs 50 to 119 lbs. | 101
| 100.7
| 100.1-102.7
|
Hogs 120-179 | 102
| 99.9
| 99.4-101.5
|
Hogs 180 and over | 102
| 101.6
| 99.7-103.8
|
A slightly bigger-than-expected market hog inventory signals hog slaughter will continue to outpace year-ago moving forward. Breaking down the market hog numbers, the kill pace should run roughly 1% above year-ago through spring and summer. With abundant pork supplies in storage and a bigger-than-expected supply of hogs coming to market, there will continue to be pressure on demand to chew through supplies.
The winter pig crop came in 2% higher than year-ago thanks a pickup in farrowings and continued strong efficiency in the farrowing house as pigs per litter continue to trend higher.
Spring and summer farrowing intentions signal producers intend to trim production -- or at least that’s what they indicated to USDA. But if there’s a drop in feed prices, as expected, those intentions could change. After all, record-high feed prices triggered very little herd contraction last summer and fall, and we’re hearing herds are being actively expanded in some areas of the Corn Belt.
