The U.S. pork sector will see moderate growth this year, which should support hog prices and keep pork as an affordable protein alternative to beef, says Brian Earnest in the latest CoBank Knowledge Exchange quarterly report.
“Growing export opportunities and strengthening domestic interest in pork are moving U.S. hog prices higher,” Earnest says. “This has provided more incentive to hog producers to increase production in 2025 compared to recent years.”
The CME lean hog index started the year at a premium of more than 30% year over year. CoBank says retreating feed costs and improved livability have helped create a more favorable situation as well. Although feeder pig values started the year up about 25% year over year, they have since fallen quite drastically, which could stall any potential expansion, Earnest says.
“The dynamics of the industry suggest that a firm pork cutout and tempered feed costs provide ample support for growth,” he says.
During the first quarter of 2025, the USDA pork cutout value was up 6% year over year on average, which was a 15% premium to the five-year average. Earnest also notes that Iowa State University’s data shows pork producer margins have been positive for 11 months through February 2025 which hit $14.07/head.
“However, nearly one year of profit has not been enough to offset the steep declines seen in 2023 where margins averaged $29/head loss,” he says. “This improved to only $0.90/head lost on average in 2024.”
The latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report revealed that the breeding herd continued to contract by 0.6%, and pigs saved per litter continued to rise year over year in the three months ending February 2025. Carcass weights were also up about 1% from a year ago.
“While these factors are in play, the U.S. pork sector is using genetics to discover as much efficiency as possible,” Earnest says.
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