It’s time to focus on productivity, cost reduction and cautious expansion, suggest analysts in a recent RaboResearch report. Limited herd rebuilding is expected in the U.S. as producers weigh out risks.
“The high cost of expansion, global export uncertainty and ongoing disease challenges are likely at the root of the delayed growth,” the analysts write. “This suggests that supply growth through 2026 will rely heavily on continued productivity gains and heavier carcass weights.”
Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch, says the driving forces for growth vary by region.
“Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the U.S., China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China,” Pan says. “Production in 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain. In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
Trade is expected to remain volatile
Global pork trade showed an uneven performance in 2025, as Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the U.S. and Canada, saw single digit declines, the analysts say.
“Into 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into U.S. pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns. All these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2026,” the report explains.
U.S. pork exports remain under pressure
July pork export volumes were down 0.8% year-over-year in volume, totaling 230,321 metric tons and down 4.3% year-over-year in value. The primary contributor to this decline was a drop in exports to Mexico of 8% year-over-year. Exports to Canada were also weak in late summer and down 19% year-over-year. Meanwhile, exports to other top markets such as Japan and China were flat. A bright spot in 2025 was South Korea, up 22% year-over-year.
RaboResearch expects a nearly 2% decline in pork exports and no growth in 2026.
Pork cutout high on tight supplies
Analysts point out pork prices remained strong through the third quarter of 2025, nearly 20% above year-ago levels and 14% higher than the five-year average. Most cuts posted strong double-digit increases versus year-ago levels, with notable gains in bellies and hams on historically low inventories and steady processor demand.
The exception? Loins were up 5% year-over-year due to disappointing retail demand. Analysts expect prices to moderate through the end of 2026 due to the seasonal increase in supply, limited export growth and continued pressure from increased chicken meat supplies.
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026
Biosecurity was a top priority for producers in 2025, analysts say, with rolling outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in North America and Europe. New cases of African swine fever (ASF) in Asia have the industry on alert moving into 2026.
“ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery,” analysts say. “Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures.”
Efforts to develop new tools to mitigate the effects are slow, with limited results so far. The report notes vaccine development and regional containment strategies are gaining industry support in some markets.
