The total hogs and pigs inventory in the March 1 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report was 74.3 million head, up 0.4% last year and a little below analysts’ pre-report estimates.
“These quarterly reports always help us reset our market expectations,” says economist Lee Schulz during a webinar hosted by the National Pork Board. “We have a quarter’s worth of slaughter data, production data and demand data that comes at us, and this gives us a chance to reevaluate those expectations.”
He praised the December Hogs and Pigs Report for being “spot on.”
“USDA only missed by 6,000 head,” Schulz says. “That’s astonishing, given that we slaughter about a half a million head a day ... that margin of error was very small. I think that gives us a little more confidence as we look at this latest report and how those market hog inventories may play out over the next six months.”
He notes numbers in this report are close to a year ago.
“I think one interpretation of the market is that we’re not seeing larger supplies now, but we’re also not seeing shrinking supplies,” Schulz explains. “Relative to pre-report expectations, overall we would see tighter levels than what those pre-report expectations would tell us. Now, how much and for how long our markets react to that is to be debated.”
A Look at the Numbers
The total inventory for all hogs and pigs on March 1 was 74.3 million head, up slightly from a year ago, and down 1% from Dec. 1, 2025.
The market hog inventory on March 1 was 68.4 million, up 1% from 2025 but down 2% from the previous quarter. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 53% of the total U.S. hog inventory on March 1, up 1% from 2025.
The breeding inventory came in at 5.89 million head, down 1% from a year ago, and down slightly from Dec. 1. The December 2025 to February 2026 pig crop, at 33.2 million head, was up 1% from 2025. The number of sows that farrowed during this three-month period was down 1% from 2025 at 2.79 million head, which represents 47% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.90 for the December 2025 through February 2026 period, compared to 11.65 last year.
U.S. hog producers intend to farrow 2.86 million sows during the March through May 2026 quarter, up slightly from the actual sows farrowing during the same period in 2025, but down 2% from the same period in 2024. Intended sows farrowing for June through August 2026, at 2.90 million sows, are down 2% from the same period in 2025, and down 3% from the same period in 2024.
“Revisions were very minor from the December report,” Schulz says. “I think that’s really important, because if there’s not a lot of revisions to the report, that means that there’s not a lot of moving parts when we think about how to interpret the report, as well as how the market may react to the report.”
All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2025 through December 2025 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss and updated import and export data. The revision made to the December 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.2%. The net revision made to the September 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.3%. A net revision of 2.8% was made to the June-August 2025 pig crop.
A Smaller Breeding Herd with Record Productivity
The breeding herd came in 1.5% below March 2025 levels, a larger contraction than analysts expected. Schulz notes this is the smallest March 1 breeding herd since 2014.
“The size of the breeding herd makes sense relative to the slaughter data,” he says. “We’ve seen an annualized slaughter rate of 48.5% that is lower than what the five-year average is, but you did see some notably large slaughter culling rates back in 2020, 2023 and 2024 but it is higher than we’ve seen over the 10-year average. That is indicative that there is still some contraction in the industry.”
Despite a smaller herd, productivity continues to climb and offset some of that contraction. Litter rates jumped 2.1% year over year, setting new records, Schulz says.
“It’s like when you start setting records in a race,” he says. “You don’t set records by a really large gap; usually it’s by milliseconds. What the latest litter rate data would say is, again, we’re jumping back up to setting those records by a wide margin.”
According to the report, producers intend to farrow fewer sows in the coming quarters compared to previous estimates. He says this is likely due to the shrinking breeding herd and market uncertainty.
Is There an Incentive to Add Weight?
Schulz points out that hog slaughter is down 0.9% year to date, according to the latest data. However, he says it’s important to remember this is unadjusted data.
“We need to adjust for slaughter days, which can change interpretation here,” he says. “Yes, hog slaughter is down 0.9% year over year, but we’re not necessarily comparing apples to apples.”
When adjusting for slaughter days, it shows that slaughter is actually up compared to 2025 year to date, depending on the metric that you like to use, Schulz explains. Weekly slaughter would suggest slaughter is up about 0.5% since the beginning of the year.
“I would really encourage you when we make some of these comparisons, when we’re looking at slaughter levels, when we’re helping benchmark the Hogs and Pigs Report, know what you’re comparing,” he says. “I like to use the daily data adjusted for slaughter days, or it’s pretty easy to use the weekly data, and that helps smooth out some of those comparisons year over year.”
Market weights are roughly 2 lb. heavier than 2025 levels. Low feed costs and available finishing capacity provide a strong incentive for producers to add weight, he says.
Profitability Outlook
Cash prices for weaned and feeder pigs are at or near record levels, signaling strong demand for barn space and optimism regarding forward margins, Schulz says.
Costs remain elevated, roughly 31% higher than in 2020, driven by inflationary pressures on non-feed variables.
The forecasted average profit for 2026 is approximately $15 per head. While positive, Schulz emphasizes that producers are still in a “healing” phase for their balance sheets after the heavy losses of 2023 and 2024.
“Favorable margins with some upside are possible, but there’s notable downside potential based on historical levels,” he says. “During the 2016-2026 period, the range in profits was -$57.97 to $57.31. During the 2016-2025 period, 60% of months were profitable and 40% were unprofitable.”
Over the 74 months since 2020, the average per head marketed is $2 per head, according to the most recent actual data in February 2026.
“Balance sheets continue to recover,” Schulz says. “As you think about where these inventories are in the latest Hogs & Pigs Report, the 1.5% decrease in the breeding herd and not a whole lot of growth in the inventories, I think this is a bit indicative we’re still healing some of those balance sheets out there.”
