How Will Higher Expected Meat Exports to China Impact Global Trade?
Despite the challenges of the current wave of COVID-19 infections in China, the import forecasts of beef and pork in 2023 are revised up and are now forecast higher year-on-year, according to USDA’s most recent Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report. However, chicken meat imports are forecast marginally lower.
“The upward revisions for China red meat import forecasts are partially derived from higher estimates for 2022 as fourth quarter shipments were stronger than expected,” USDA said in the report. “For 2023, projected economic recovery as well as the anticipated revival of the hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector support expanding consumption and red meat imports.”
Key points in the report include:
• Despite an upward revision for China pork production in 2023 from the October forecast, domestic supplies are virtually unchanged year-on-year and are unlikely to fully meet rebounding consumption.
• Beef imports are expected to grow in 2023, but the pace of shipments will slow as importers have product in cold storage that needs to enter the market before they will invest in additional purchases.
• China chicken meat imports are revised lower to pre-pandemic levels. Lower pork prices are expected to lower consumer demand for chicken meat. However, chicken meat imports account for only about 4% of consumption.
Global pork production for 2023 is revised up 3% from the October forecast to 114.1 million tons on higher output in China, the report said. Analysts expect pork demand to strengthen in China due to recently lifted COVID-19 restrictions.
Meanwhile, production forecasts remain largely unchanged for other countries. Global pork exports for 2023 are forecast 2% higher from the October forecast to 10.7 million tons as EU, Brazil and U.S. exports are up on stronger than anticipated demand from key Asia markets.
“Upward revisions in China and Philippines imports will more than offset a decline in the United States. Philippines imports are forecast higher as reduced import tariffs for pork are extended through 2023. African swine fever continues to stifle the Philippines' production, boosting demand for imports,” the report noted.
Read the full report here.
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