How Will the Disrupted Holiday Week Impact the Pork Market in the Weeks Ahead?
The holiday shortened week likely caused some disruptions in both product and livestock markets, Steiner Consulting reports in the Daily Livestock Report.
Analysts shared insights into the data that came out on Friday and Saturday and implications for the weeks ahead.
Hog slaughter last week was estimated at 2.223 million head, down 376,000 head from the previous week as well as 32,000 head lower from a year ago. This is a 1.4% drop year over year.
"The decline in slaughter was in line with expectations but when we look at the past four weeks, slaughter has been down 2.2%, far more than expected. What’s even more telling is that the average weight of producer-owned hogs has yet to trend higher, as is usually the case at this time of year," Steiner Consulting reports.
In the five days ending Nov. 23, the average weight of producer-owned barrows and gilts was 212.2 lb./carcass, down 4 lb. or 1.8% from a year ago and almost unchanged for the past four weeks.
Although pork production numbers continue to track below year ago levels, pork export volume remain strong due to strong demand from Mexico and from some Asian and South American countries.
- Pork shipments last week were 33,201 MT, up 10% from the average of the previous four weeks as well as above year ago levels.
- Shipments to Mexico have been solid so far, last week pegged at 16,328 MT, 14% higher than the average of the previous four weeks.
- Shipments to China were near 5,000 MT, 15% higher than the previous four weeks and 15% higher than a year ago.
- Net sales last week were over 50,000 MT despite limited sales to China.
"The fact that sales have held up despite higher pork prices and a strong US dollar suggests that export demand is in good shape," Steiner Consulting reports.
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