Indirect effects from geopolitical disruption are increasing cost pressures across pork supply chains, even as near term supply and demand remain stable, says Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst with RaboResearch, in the latest RaboResearch’s Global Pork Quarterly. Second- and third-order effects from energy, logistics and feed markets are becoming the defining risks for pork producers and traders in 2026.
1. Global pork markets face growing indirect cost pressures.
Although global pork markets entered the second quarter with generally stable supply-demand fundamentals, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty across costs, trade and consumption, McCracken says. Even though direct exposure to the conflict in the Middle East is limited, margins across the sector are tightening from higher energy prices, logistics disruption and fertilizer-driven feed risks.
“Feed markets remain relatively well supplied after strong global harvests, keeping near-term costs contained,” she explains. “Yet rising energy prices and improving biofuel economics are pushing oilseed markets higher, gradually eroding feed affordability.”
The result is increasingly cautious hog producers, especially in regions facing disease challenges or high capital costs. It’s also affecting packers with higher costs for energy, packaging and logistics that will likely get passed on to consumers.
2. Consumer caution is rising in some markets.
Consumers are being cautious, too. The heightened global uncertainty is resulting in cautious consumer spending in some markets. McCracken says inflationary pressures are just beginning and may weigh more heavily on purchases in the coming months. Pork availability should remain steady and affordable for most consumers, but she warns that demand could soften as households look to economize.
“We expect consumers to take a more cautious approach to spending in the coming months. Foodservice sales and spending on premium products will likely see the greatest initial impact, and total spending on proteins is expected to decline as consumers work to manage their overall spending,” McCracken says.
She believes pork sales could see a modest benefit as consumers shift to in-home food preparation and trading down to pork as a value protein. As a whole, the protein segment is expected to come under modest pressure.
3. Markets face disease-related disruptions and trade frictions.
The devastating effect of diseases such as African swine fever (ASF) continue to slow production and add costs for the global swine industry. However, the industry is making improvements in the detection and control of disease spread. For example, the Philippines has reported a sharp drop in the number of ASF cases in Q1 2026, with the number of affected regions falling from nine to three, she says. Industry repopulation efforts remain slow due to high costs and limited financial support.
“As a result, supply in some markets remains tight, producers increasingly rely on the remaining herd and increasing productivity gains, and import volumes are rising to meet market needs,” McCracken says. “But shifting alignments and rising geopolitical turmoil are creating incremental trade frictions, bringing the potential for more protectionist trade policies that could impact the cost of key inputs, especially in the animal feed, equipment and animal health industries.”
