By Caleb Shull, director of research and innovation for The Maschhoffs
As predicted, this past year was challenging and provided some clarity on a few topics, but it also prolonged some of the key issues facing our industry. Mounting losses through the first half of the year forced the sow base to shrink modestly, but sow productivity continued an upward trend. Although profitability has returned, now is not the time to assume we are in for a good couple of years within our industry. It is time to focus on incremental improvement and positioning our industry for long-term success.
Market Dynamics
The supply and demand situation in the U.S. pork industry continues to remain in a precarious position. Exports have remained strong and have supported prices in recent months but seem more uncertain in the future with the change in political landscape and the emphasis on the use of tariffs. The supply side of the equation remains strong despite a contracting sow base. The combination of strong genetic trends for increased productivity as well as the removal of lower performing sow farms has left a more competitive U.S. sow herd. More focus should be put on driving domestic demand in the coming year. Developing pork products that match the fast-paced eating habits that younger generations demand out of their meat products should be the priority. Stuck in the middle of beef and broilers, we must figure out how to position our product for increased domestic demand.
TN Visa Concerns
One of the successes mentioned in last year’s outlook was the TN Visa program and the impact it has had on providing a source of skilled labor that our industry needs. Uncertainty now exists as to the future impact of that program as the number of visa denials has skyrocketed this past year. There are some encouraging signs of interest in collaborating with state officials to address the issues we have faced, and this should be a priority in the coming year. If we cannot find a solution to the TN visa denial problem, we need to find an alternative pipeline of qualified people as our industry requires a talented workforce. The adoption of technology that provides labor solutions to our industry has been slow but deserves continued exploration.
Health Update
This past year was relatively calm from an epidemic disease standpoint. History would say we are likely in for a more challenging year and there are some early signs of more widespread porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) challenges across the Midwest. There has been significant investment toward protecting our sow herds within our industry and, while there is still work to do on that front, it seems like an increased focus on improving biosecurity principles in our growing pig operations is warranted to reduce the overall disease pressure. Enteric challenges persist and prove difficult to manage, especially in commingled populations. Advancements in vaccine platforms will hopefully provide some relief in the coming year.
Waiting Game
An election year brought us limited progress on key industry issues, such as Proposition 12 regulation. The farm bill getting postponed to 2025 limited our ability to get clarity. Our hope is that a new farm bill provides regulations that keep U.S. pork competitive in an increasingly competitive global swine industry. Another topic that seems to be in a continued wait-and-see mode is the acceptance of gene editing for PRRS resistance. It will be interesting to see when and how the regulation and public acceptance of that technology plays out.
Focus on the Sow
One continuing trend is a shift toward focusing on the sow, not only for improving her longevity, but also her ability to set the weaned pig up for success. While annual sow mortality might have leveled off and is not increasing at the same rate as it had in previous years, it remains at a level that deserves attention. More research effort is pouring into sow longevity across a range of disciplines, including genetics and nutrition. While this might take time, the investment in this research area gives some hope for the future. A more recent shift has been toward technologies that are administered to the sow to improve the robustness of the weaned pig. Technologies that could improve milk output and quality, reduce pathogen load shed to the piglets, or better prepare the piglet’s gut for the weaning transition offer some hope for producing a more durable weaned pig.
After a prolonged period of red ink, it sure is nice to have profitable months in this year’s forecast. In a competitive global industry, U.S. swine producers must continue to focus on production efficiency through both innovation and high-level execution. In a period of high demand for quality proteins, we do not want to miss this unique opportunity to provide quality, affordable and more convenient products.
Your Next Read: A Winning Mentality Motivates This Illinois Livestock Industry Teacher, Coach and Mentor
