Analysis of the recent pork markets across the U.S., Asia and the European Union markets show they are highly dynamic and impacted by diseases, seasonal demand and production, according to the third-quarter report on pork prices and forecast from Expana. In addition, tariffs, changing policies, and supply and demand contribute to the results.
U.S.
The U.S. ranks third in the world for pork production and consumption and is a net exporter of pork. Disease pressure from Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has created supply-side concerns, and tariffs with China have slowed the typically robust export market.
While there is consistent year-round pork production in the U.S., demand gained momentum with the summer grilling season. Weekly USDA data showed year-to-date federally inspected pork production through the second week of June was 0.1% below year-ago levels, while year-to-date hog slaughter was down about 0.5% compared to the same period in 2024.
Average federally inspected carcass weights (215 lb.) and live hog weights (289 lb.) were each about a pound heavier than year-ago levels, based on data through the second week of June.
Key U.S. takeaways include:
- Total U.S. hog and pig inventory as of March 1 stood at 74.5 million head, slightly below year-ago levels, 1% lower.
- Farrowing intentions for March through May were reported at 2.91 million head, down 1%, suggesting a modest tightening in near-term supply heading into late summer.
- USDA cold storage data supports a view of a tighter market.
- Total pork inventories at the end of April were reported at 455.8 million lbs., up 11.3% from March but still 8.7% below year-ago levels. Hams led the monthly increase. Bellies rose 9.3%.
- Bone-in loins declined 11%, while boneless loins increased 4.6%, resulting in a slight net decrease. Butts declined 0.7% and are now at a 52-week low.
- Overall prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the second quarter around U.S. cents (USc) 1.7-1.8, with Expana suggesting prices will decrease in the third quarter of 2025.
- USDA projects a decline in pork rib inventories into 2025, supporting higher prices. Production costs also fell last month, led by cheaper feeder pig prices, which will limit further downside risk for now.
- Prices at USc — 1.65/lb. — are currently considered fair by Expana analysis.
Asia Pacific Region
Pork remains the highest protein consumed and produced in the Asian Pacific (APAC).
Pork consumption in APAC depends on the climate and culture, with hot dishes across China, South Korea, and Japan increasing demand in winter. Lighter meals and seafood slightly ease pork intake in summer. In Southeast Asia, consumption stays steady year-round, with festive surges during special holidays and in traditional dishes.
China is the world leader generating 57.06 million metric tons (mt) of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 57.94 million mt in 2023, which was the second-highest on record.
After the recent years of African swine fever (ASF), China’s pork industry shifted toward larger scale production with stronger biosecurity measures and increased feeding capacity. Pork production rose in volume by 1.2% year-on-year to 16.02 million tons.
While China has reduced its reliance on imports, it still leads global pork trade, growing imports by 3.6% year-on-year to 350,000 mt in the first quarter of 2025. In 2024, total imports stood at 1.05 million mt, with a value of $2.09 billion.
Additional APAC takeaways include:
- Vietnam is APAC’s second-largest producer and is typically self-sufficient in pork, but it has imported 107,857 mt of pork, mainly from Brazil and Russia, due to ASF outbreaks in 2019. In March, JBS announced it is building two processing plants in Vietnam, which is expected to increase production again.
- Japan is APAC’s second-largest pork importer, bringing in 1.29 million mt of pork in 2024-25. Imports reached 974,460 mt valued at $2.08 billion, mainly from the U.S., Canada, Spain and Mexico.
- Rising demand is driving higher imports in South Korea, which is a highly competitive market with duty-free access. South Korea produced 1.46 million mt of pork in the 2024-25 marketing year and imported 563,210 mt in 2024. A record of $728 million came from the U.S., according to USDA data.
- Disease outbreaks drove higher imports from Brazil in the Philippines.
- China launched an anti-dumping investigation on pork and pork byproducts imported from the EU, which is set to expire Dec. 16.
European Union
The EU is the world’s second-biggest pork producer after China, and it leads the world in pork exports. With the rise in U.S. tariffs, Chinese importers have turned to the EU and South American suppliers, thus increasing EU exports. Pork prices in the EU have rebounded since an early-year dip, supported by grilling demand and export momentum, although they remain below year-ago levels, says the Expana report.
EU takeaways include:
- EU production output increased while stock levels remained tight.
- EU exports of fresh and frozen pork meat reached 540,589 mt during the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 2.2%.
- Chinese buyers have continued to diversify their sourcing, supporting EU pork exports.
- Following a sharp price decrease during January, the price for EU pork carcasses has increased consistently.
- Pork and pork trimming prices reflected bearish market sentiment in January but shifted to a bullish trend with continued price increases in the following months.
- Robust export demand has continued to bolster bullish market sentiment in the EU pork market so far this year.
